Despite
over 50 years of research on the use of population models
in chemical risk assessment, their practical utility has remained
elusive. A novel application and interpretation of ecotoxicological
models, Endogenous Lifecycle Models (ELM), is proposed that offers
some of the benefits sought from population models, at much lower
cost of design, parametrization, and verification. ELMs capture the
endogenous lifecycle processes of growth, development, survival, and
reproduction and integrate these to estimate and predict expected
fitness. Two measures of fitness are proposed as natural model predictions
in the context of chemical risk assessment, lifetime reproductive
success, and the expected annual propagation of genetic descendants,
including self (intrinsic fitness). Six characteristics of the ELM
approach are reviewed and illustrated with two ELM examples, the first
for a general passerine lifecycle and the second for bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Throughout, the focus is on development
of robust qualitative model predictions that depend as little as possible
on specific parameter values. Thus, ELMs sacrifice precision to optimize
generality in understanding the effects of chemicals across the diversity
of avian lifecycles. Notably, the ELM approach integrates naturally
with the adverse outcome pathway framework; this integration can be
employed as a midtier risk assessment tool when lower tier analyses
suggest potential risk.