Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Abstract

Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.

Tree Species Selection in the Face of Drought Risk—Uncertainty in Forest Planning

“…In order to evaluate the interaction between species selection priorities, changing climatic conditions and drought restrictions, we implement three contrasting forest management concepts: (1) a business-as-usual strategy which mimics currently-applied silvicultural practices on public forest land in Germany; (2) a climate protection strategy which aims to maximize CO 2 sequestration in standing volume as well as wood products; and (3) a biodiversity strategy which focusses on increasing the area of potential natural vegetation (for more information see [53]). The selection of future tree species always has to be in line with species site-suitability for all management strategies.…”

“…Table 3. Definition of drought vulnerability classes for five major tree species and corresponding planning measures according to [28,53]. According to the specified thresholds in Table 3 Norway spruce is the most drought-prone species, followed by European beech, the oak and Douglas-fir group and Scots pine as the most drought-resistant species.…”

Is Biomass Accumulation in Forests an Option to Prevent Climate Change Induced Increases in Nitrate Concentrations in the North German Lowland?

“…The model, originating from a re-parameterized version of the Korf function by Lappi [43], predicts single-tree height to diameter relations as a function of soil and climate parameters (cf. [30,42]). The longitudinal diameter-height model is spatially explicit, thus it takes, among others, the strongly spatially correlated nitrogen deposition into account.…”

“…The WaldPlaner system projects forest development by applying silvicultural management regimes and accounting for changing climatic conditions. The system requires data on forest stands, soil properties and climate conditions as the input and silvicultural management regimes are specified using a list of control variables [30]. The control variables used in the forest growth simulator WaldPlaner to define the management scenarios are listed in Table 1.…”

Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland

“…Es kamen sowohl stärker prozessorientierte als auch statistische Modelle zum Einsatz , RIEDIGER et al 2014. Die Modelle zum Wasser-und Stoffhaushalt sowie zugehörige Produktivitätsmodelle (L1, L3, L6, ALBERT et al 2015) bauten dabei im Sinne einer Modellkaskade aufeinander auf.…”