Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI)

Richter, Jadwiga H.; Visioni, Daniele; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Bailey, David A.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Lee, Walker; Tye, Mari R.; Lamarque, Jean‐François

doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-125

Cited by 22 publications

(58 citation statements)

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“…Gridded, monthly near surface air temperature fields (variable name TREFHT) were obtained from the ensemble of simulations performed for the Assessing Responses and Impacts of SRM on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI) (50). The ARISE ensemble was simulated with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (71) using WACCM6 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6, WACCM6) (72).…”

Section: Arise Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The location and amount of aerosols released into the stratosphere each year is determined by a controller algorithm that works to keep global mean temperature, the north-south temperature gradient, and the equator-to-pole temperature gradient at values based on the 2020-2039 mean of the SSP2-4.5 simulations with CESM2 (WACCM6) (72). Further details about the ARISE SAI configuration and aerosol injection strategy are provided in (50).…”

Section: Arise Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ARISE-SAI simulates a plausible deployment of SAI, designed to hold global mean temperature at 1.5°C above pre-industrial conditions in the context of the SSP2-4.5 future emissions scenario (Fig. 1A) (50).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Keys¹,

Barnes²,

Diffenbaugh³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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As anthropogenic activities continue to warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as local adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation management, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the planet. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) — the theoretical deployment of particles in the stratosphere to enhance reflection of incoming solar radiation — is one possible strategy to slow, pause or reverse global warming. If SAI is ever pursued it will likely be for a specific aim, such as allowing more time to implement mitigation strategies, lessening the impacts of extremes, or significantly reducing the odds of reaching a biogeophysical tipping point. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations that employ SAI, we quantify the probability that internal climate variability masks the effectiveness of SAI deployment regionally. We find that, when global temperature is stabilized, substantial land areas continue to experience warming temperatures. For example, up to 55% of the global population experiences rising temperatures over the decade following SAI deployment, and large areas exhibit high probability of extremely hot years. These conditions could cause SAI to be perceived as a failure. Countries with the largest economies experience some of the largest probabilities of this perceived failure. The potential for perceived failure of even the most successful SAI strategy could therefore have major implications for policy decisions in the years immediately following deployment.

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Section: Arise Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Arise Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Keys¹,

Barnes²,

Diffenbaugh³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is widely acknowledged that the Earth system responses to SAI will vary temporally and spatially (Cheng et al, 2019;Simpson et al, 2019) as well as in response to the injection location (MacMartin et al, 2018;Kravitz et al, 2019). Responses in the hydrological cycle are complicated by intra-annual to interannual changes in the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (Haywood et al, 2013) and conflicting signals in atmosphericoceanic teleconnections such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Gabriel and Robock, 2015;Malik et al, 2020), in addition to energetic constraints (Allen and Ingram, 2002;Ingram, 2016) and the specific influence of SO 2 in damping precipitation sensitivity (Salzmann, 2016). Furthermore, the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation has become more skewed in response to temperature increases, such that the most extreme events may not have as linear a correlative relationship with Clausius-Clapeyron as previously assumed (Guerreiro et al, 2018;Pendergrass and Knutti, 2018;Allan et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

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“…A recent report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) emphasizes the urgent need to have a comprehensive understanding of the feasibility and potential risks/benefits of solar climate intervention approaches (NASEM, 2021). Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has demonstrated the most promise as proximately engineerable (Shepherd et al, 2009;Lockley et al, 2020;IPCC, 2021) and has been extensively studied using models (e.g., GeoMIP: Kravitz et al, 2011;GLENS: Mills et al, 2017;Richter et al, 2022). The NASEM report (NASEM, 2021) pointed out that "the overall magnitude and spatial distribution of the forcing produced by SAI depends strongly on the aerosol size distribution" and "One of the research priorities for SAI is thus to address critical gaps in knowledge about the evolution of the aerosol particle size distribution".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Particle number concentrations and size distributions in the stratosphere: Implications of nucleation mechanisms and particle microphysics

Luo²,

Nair³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. While formation and growth of particles in the troposphere have been extensively studied in the past two decades, very limited efforts have been devoted to understanding these in the stratosphere. Here we use both Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) laboratory measurements taken under very low temperatures (205–223 K) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) in-situ observations of particle number size distributions (PNSD) down to 3 nm to constrain nucleation mechanisms and to evaluate model simulated particle size distributions in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). We show that the binary homogenous nucleation (BHN) scheme used in most of the existing stratospheric aerosol injection (a proposed method of solar radiation modification) modeling studies overpredict the nucleation rates by 3–4 orders of magnitude (when compared to CLOUD data) and particle number concentrations in the background LMS by a factor ~2–4 (when compared to ATom data). Based on a recently developed kinetic nucleation model, which gives rates of both ion-mediated nucleation (IMN) and BHN at low temperatures in good agreement with CLOUD measurements, both BHN and IMN occur in the stratosphere. However, IMN rates are generally more than one order of magnitude higher than BHN rates and thus dominate nucleation in the background stratosphere. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) LMS with minimum influence of anthropogenic emissions, our analysis shows that ATom measured PNSDs generally have four apparent modes. The model captures reasonably well the two modes (Aitken mode and the first accumulation mode) with the highest number concentrations and the size-dependent standard deviations. However, the model misses an apparent second accumulation mode peaking around 300–400 nm, which is in the size range important for aerosol direct radiative forcing. The bi-mode structure of accumulation mode particles has also been observed in the stratosphere well above tropopause and in the volcano-perturbed stratosphere. We suggest that this bi-mode structure may be caused by the effect of charges on coagulation and growth, which is not yet considered in any existing models and may be important in the stratosphere due to high ionization rates and long lifetime of aerosols. Considering the importance of accurate PNSDs for projecting realistic radiation forcing response to stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), it is essential to understand and incorporate such potentially important processes in SAI model simulations.

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Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI)

Cited by 22 publications

References 0 publications

Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Particle number concentrations and size distributions in the stratosphere: Implications of nucleation mechanisms and particle microphysics

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