Assessing resilience of healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19: emerging risks, resilience indicators, interdependencies and international standards

Jovanović, Aleksandar; Klimek, Peter; Renn, Ortwin; Schneider, R; Øien, Knut; Brown, Jennifer; DiGennaro, M; Liu, Y; Pfau, V.; Jelić, Marjan; Rosen, Tony; Caillard, Bastien; Chakravarty, Somik; Chhantyal, P

doi:10.1007/s10669-020-09779-8

Cited by 67 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“… The final scenario is an intense version of any of the previous four scenarios. The healthcare system in each county has a limited capacity (e.g., ICU rooms, ventilator machines), and may fail if the imposed demand becomes higher than the “ultimate capacity” of the system [ 68 ]. A potential solution is to flatten the transmission curve by imposing stronger stay-at-home orders.…”

Section: Multi-hazard On Healthcare Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies

Hariri-Ardebili

2020

IJERPH

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Humans are living in an uncertain world, with daily risks confronting them from various low to high hazard events, and the COVID-19 pandemic has created its own set of unique risks. Not only has it caused a significant number of fatalities, but in combination with other hazard sources, it may pose a considerably higher multi-risk. In this paper, three hazardous events are studied through the lens of a concurring pandemic. Several low-probability high-risk scenarios are developed by the combination of a pandemic situation with a natural hazard (e.g., earthquakes or floods) or a complex emergency situation (e.g., mass protests or military movements). The hybrid impacts of these multi-hazard situations are then qualitatively studied on the healthcare systems, and their functionality loss. The paper also discusses the impact of pandemic’s (long-term) temporal effects on the type and recovery duration from these adverse events. Finally, the concept of escape from a hazard, evacuation, sheltering and their potential conflict during a pandemic and a natural hazard is briefly reviewed. The findings show the cascading effects of these multi-hazard scenarios, which are unseen nearly in all risk legislation. This paper is an attempt to urge funding agencies to provide additional grants for multi-hazard risk research.

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Section: Multi-hazard On Healthcare Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies

Hariri-Ardebili

2020

IJERPH

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“…Furthermore, a hypercube has the advantage of providing a direct view of the relationships and correlations among resilient dimensions. Focusing on infrastructure resilience, Jovanović et al employ a three-dimensional space to visualise three resilience components including matrix-based indicators, complexity (level of detail), and smartness (big data analytics) [122] for healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19 [123]. In another work, a resiliency cube is plotted to manifest the resilience of an urban road network in the time of earthquake [67].…”

Section: Multidimensional Information Visualisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling, Measuring, and Visualising Community Resilience: A Systematic Review

Nguyễn

Akerkar

2020

Sustainability

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The concept of community resilience receives much attention in studies and applications due to its ability to provide preparedness against hazards, to protect our life against risks, and to recover to stable living conditions. Nevertheless, community resilience is complex, contextual, multifaceted, and therefore hard to define, recognise, and operationalise. An essential advantage of having a complete process for community resilience is the capacity to be aware of and respond appropriately in times of adversity. A three-step process constituting of modelling, measurement, and visualisation is crucial to determine components, to assess value, and to represent information of community resilience, respectively. The goal of this review is to offer a general overview of multiple perspectives for modelling, measuring, and visualising community resilience derived from related and emerging studies, projects, and tools. By engaging throughout the entire process, which involves three sequential steps as we mentioned above, communities can discover important components of resilience, optimise available local and natural resources, and mitigate the impact of impairments effectively and efficiently. To this end, we conduct a systematic review of 77 different literature records published from 2000 to 2020, concentrating on five research questions. We believe that researchers, practitioners, and policymakers can utilise this paper as a potential reference and a starting point to surpass current hindrances as well as to sharpen their future research directions.

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“…Infrastructure planning must consider sustaining monitoring and response mechanisms for months to years amid economic disruption and workforce challenges (i.e., infected laborers and social distancing), conditions not adequately addressed in national response plans (Dietz and Black, 2012). Measures to "flatten the curve" for the number of cases can increase the capacity for systems to absorb impacts in terms of systems functionality curves (i.e., resilience curves), which differ between sectors (e.g., communications, healthcare, power, and water) (Jovanovic et al, 2020). While studies have long highlighted alarming gaps in preparedness (Osterholm, 2005;Adalja et al, 2012), hospitals also depend on CI, as for example, all modern medicine depends on electrical systems in some way (Osterholm and Kelley, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While devastating pandemics like the Spanish Flu (1918) have happened in the past, infrastructure for pandemics in the Anthropocene are not well understood (Williams, 2007;Ryan, 2008;Cohen, 2009). COVID-19 is an emerging risk (i.e., previously not widely considered), which poses the greatest challenges to resilience because knowledge and information is vague or missing, maturity of risk management is low, and regulatory frameworks are missing or inconsistent (Jovanovic et al, 2020). Moreover, these challenges can be exacerbated and accelerated by the changing relationship between people and their environments in increasingly complex social (e.g., norms, urbanization, international travel and trade), ecological (e.g., climate change), political (e.g., public health breakdowns, landuse policy), and built environment systems (Bogich et al, 2012;Bedford et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 as a Harbinger of Transforming Infrastructure Resilience

Carvalhaes

Markolf

Helmrich

et al. 2020

Front. Built Environ.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked infrastructure systems in unanticipated ways. Seemingly in the course of weeks, our demands for many basic and critical services have radically shifted. With expected long-term effects (i.e., years), COVID-19 is going to have profound impacts on every facet of infrastructure systems, and will shock these systems very differently than the hazards that we often focus on, such as extreme events, disrepair, and terrorist attacks. At the beginning of this pandemic, infrastructure managers are scrambling to respond to changes in demand, and to understand what the long-term effects are for how they operate and maintain their systems. We contend that COVID-19 is revealing several important limitations to how we approach and manage our infrastructure, that must be acknowledged and addressed as the pandemic persists, and in a future increasingly characterized by accelerating and increasingly uncertain conditions. These limitations are how (i) we prepare for concurrent hazards, (ii) frame criticality based on traditional infrastructure sectors and not human capabilities, (iii) we emphasize efficiency at a cost to resilience, and (iv) leadership is largely focused on stable conditions. Each of these challenges represents a call for major rethinking for how we approach infrastructure, and COVID-19 presents a window of opportunity for change.

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Assessing resilience of healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19: emerging risks, resilience indicators, interdependencies and international standards

Cited by 67 publications

References 11 publications

Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies

Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies

Modelling, Measuring, and Visualising Community Resilience: A Systematic Review

COVID-19 as a Harbinger of Transforming Infrastructure Resilience

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