Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010: Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995

Abstract

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth" evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3(-)] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.

Long‐term effects of liming in Norwegian softwater lakes: the rise and fall of bulbous rush (Juncus bulbosus) and decline of isoetid vegetation

“…Atmospheric S deposition has significantly declined over the last few decades in Southern Norway (over 80% from 1980 to 2010) resulting in pH increases in lakes (from <5 to >5.5) (Skjelkv ale, Wright & Henriksen, 1998;Hesthagen et al, 2011b;Helliwell et al, 2014). Atmospheric S deposition has significantly declined over the last few decades in Southern Norway (over 80% from 1980 to 2010) resulting in pH increases in lakes (from <5 to >5.5) (Skjelkv ale, Wright & Henriksen, 1998;Hesthagen et al, 2011b;Helliwell et al, 2014).…”

“…These results indicate that the increased buffering of the sediments after liming has strongly increased the decomposition of reactive organic matter (Smolders et al, 2006) leading to a strong decline in the remaining reactive organic matter over time. Furthermore, reacidification of the water layer, resulting in temporary increased water layer CO 2 concentrations in spring or autumn , has become much less frequent as a result of decreased acid deposition (Helliwell et al, 2014). Furthermore, reacidification of the water layer, resulting in temporary increased water layer CO 2 concentrations in spring or autumn , has become much less frequent as a result of decreased acid deposition (Helliwell et al, 2014).…”

“…Growth of small submerged J. bulbosus plants mainly depends on the CO 2 flux from the sediment to the overlying water layer and will be negatively affected by the lower TIC production in the sediment (Lucassen et al, 1999). Furthermore, reacidification of the water layer, resulting in temporary increased water layer CO 2 concentrations in spring or autumn , has become much less frequent as a result of decreased acid deposition (Helliwell et al, 2014). These processes very likely explain why the floating mats were unable to redevelop after their collapse.…”

Spatiotemporal Changes in Atmospheric Deposition Rates Across The Czech Republic Estimated in The Selected Biomonitoring Campaigns. Examples of Results Available For Landscape Ecology and Land Use Planning

“…Forests decline, soil degradation, surface water acidification, corrosion of building materials and other negative effects caused by acid rains are well documented (e.g., Hruška & Ciencala, 2003;Helliwell et al, 2014). Since the end of 1980s acid rain deposition levels in the Czech Republic have been estimated using spruce bark extract parameters.…”

Catchment biogeochemistry modifies long-term effects of acidic deposition on chemistry of mountain lakes

“…Research on the effects of atmospheric acidification on soils and waters, modelling their chemistry, and predicting their further development require reliable trends in precipitation chemistry (Cosby et al 1986;Helliwell et al 2014). But, parallel developments of precipitation and lake water chemistry are usually difficult to track for more than a few decades, because the chemistry of atmospheric deposition has rarely been monitored for longer periods, especially in mountain regions.…”