Assessing Po River Deltaic Vulnerability Using Earth Observation and a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Abstract

Deltaic systems are broadly recognized as vulnerable hot spots at the interface between land and sea and are highly exposed to harmful natural and manmade threats. The vulnerability to these threats and the interactions of the biological, physical, and anthropogenic processes in low-lying coastal plains, such as river deltas, requires a better understanding in terms of vulnerable systems and to support sustainable management and spatial planning actions in the context of climate change. This study analyses the potential of Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to represent conditional dependencies in vulnerability assessment for future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios considering ecological, morphological and social factors using Earth observation (EO) time series dataset. The BBN model, applied in the Po Delta region in the northern Adriatic coast of Italy, defines relationships between twelve selected variables classified as driver factors (DF), land cover factors (LCF), and land use factors (LUF) chosen as critical for the definition of vulnerability hot spots, future coastal adaptation, and spatial planning actions to be taken. The key results identify the spatial distribution of the vulnerability along the costal delta and highlight where the probability of vulnerable areas is expected to increase in terms of SLR pressure, which occurs especially in the central and southern delta portion.

Coastal Monitoring and Coastal Erosion: Engineering Interventions for Coastal Protection and Considerations on the Mediterranean Sea

“…The particular conformation of the dynamics of the Mediterranean river delta and their behaviors require the use of Earth Observation technologies and GIS as tools to collect information [72] Greece, Island of Rhodes Soil erosion in the Maltese Islands and groundwater salinisation phenomena in the island of Malta Increased coastal erosion phenomena, salinization of groundwater, increased soil erosion with loss of freshwater habitat. Additionally, there may be increased risks from pathogens to human health, livestock health, as well as agriculture [61,73] South Greece Geomorphological conformations, erosion of the coast, morphology of coastal slope [74] Greece, Thermaikos Gulf Coastal lowland flooding, saline water intrusion into rivers, marsh flooding, increased seawater stratification and bottom anoxia, decreased river runoff levels, groundwater salinization, decreased soil fertility, damage to coastal protection structures, changes in the tourist season [61,75] Italy, Apulian Coastline Geomorphological conformations, erosion of the coast, aspects of the coastal slope, width of beaches and dunesand of vegetation behind the beach [76] Italy, Delta of Po Increased flood events and coastal erosion, dune retreat, damage to coastal infrastructure, soil salinization, altered water distribution regimes, reduced [61,77,78] Preprints Spain, Delta of Ebro Increases in coastal erosion rates and coastal reshaping, inundation and loss of wetlands, reductions in fisheries [61,80] Spain, Delta of Tordera Very high "hotspotness" condition, with extensive and frequent damage to the site in recent decades [81] Spain, Delta of Ebro Flooding and erosion phenomena have been detected in the urban area of the study area [82] Spain, Gulf of Valencia Major alterations of the marine environment with sea water level rises, storms and wave surges, coastal vulnerability to erosion, flooding and saline intrusion, marine pollution, biodiversity decrease and spread of invasive species with impacts on fisheries, on industry and tourism [83] Syria, Syrian coast Increase in soil erosion phenomena, groundwater salinization, exceptional storm surges with consequent beach erosion and damage to coastal structures and human settlements [61] Tunisia, Gulf of Gabes The islands on this site could be flooded in the presence of significant sea level rise phenomena Phenomena of salinization of groundwater and coastal erosion [83,84] Tunisia, Gulf of Tunis…”

Integrated Flood Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Using a Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Mission with the Perspective of an Operational Service in Lombardy, Italy

“…The development of new tools and services that consider social and physical floodrelated aspects to minimize risks and related negative consequences is needed [36,37]. In the field of disasters, map services have evolved, enhancing their capabilities since the 1980s and 1990s [38], being closely associated with technological capabilities including new techniques, computation, and software improvement.…”

Copernicus in Support of Monitoring, Protection, and Management of Cultural and Natural Heritage

“…Among the many sources of data available, Europe has been delivering a series of free and open satellite-derived data and modelling information through the Copernicus program, linking the implementation of different policies of the Union to the use of such resources [16][17][18]. Despite their value, the adoption of Copernicus EO data and information, especially from non-technical local and regional governmental authorities, remains low due to a general asymmetry of information between offer and demand, especially among public administrations [19]. Thus, within the Copernicus infrastructure, the possibility of tailoring and clustering services, data, and products, in order to satisfy the cross-cutting requirements of the cultural heritage community, constitutes an historic opportunity for development and an evolution towards their uptake by horizontal/nontraditional users [19][20][21].…”

“…Despite their value, the adoption of Copernicus EO data and information, especially from non-technical local and regional governmental authorities, remains low due to a general asymmetry of information between offer and demand, especially among public administrations [19]. Thus, within the Copernicus infrastructure, the possibility of tailoring and clustering services, data, and products, in order to satisfy the cross-cutting requirements of the cultural heritage community, constitutes an historic opportunity for development and an evolution towards their uptake by horizontal/nontraditional users [19][20][21]. For this purpose, an initial EC study (Copernicus services in support of cultural heritage) was commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship, and SMEs (DG GROW) [22].…”