Assessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets

Chaney, Éric

doi:10.1016/j.jce.2007.11.003

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Berrebi and Klor (2010: 541) document in an analysis of Israeli firms similarly 'that terrorism has a positive effect on the stock-market valuation of companies involved with defense, security or anti-terrorism products or clients, and a significantly negative effect on that of other companies' . Chaney's (2008) analysis of the Iraqi bond yield spread reveals moreover that traders reacted to overtures towards Iran, but did not respond systematically to events which politicians portrayed as milestones towards democracy. Chaney's (2008) analysis of the Iraqi bond yield spread reveals moreover that traders reacted to overtures towards Iran, but did not respond systematically to events which politicians portrayed as milestones towards democracy.…”

Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 94%

The Political Economy of Arms Export Restrictions: The Case of Japan

Tago

Schneider

2012

Japanese Journal of Political Science

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The export of arms belongs to the most contested issues in democracies. In this article, we examine the economic repercussions of the recent easing of the Japanese arms exports restrictions. We develop a rational expectations argument to understand why some political events increase the income of the arms manufacturers, while other ones reduce it or have no effect at all. Event studies suggest that investors closely observe relevant political developments since stock prices of the six arms manufacturers companies reacted consistently to the announcements and leaks as to whether the arms export restrictions would be lifted or not.

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Section: Theory and Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 94%

The Political Economy of Arms Export Restrictions: The Case of Japan

Tago

Schneider

2012

Japanese Journal of Political Science

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“…2 Event study methodology provides a way of measuring how markets assess particular events. Event studies have been used increasingly to assess multiple events such as the value of political connections (Fisman, 2001), effectiveness of US policy in Iraq (Chaney, 2008;Greenstone, 2007), the effect of CIA-supported right-wing coups in Chile and Guatemala on shares of companies expected to gain from those coups (Dube et al, 2011), the effect of civil war in Africa on diamond-mining firms (Guidolin and La Ferrara, 2007), detecting illegal arms trade (DellaVigna and La Ferrara, 2010) and others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How credible is the North Korean threat?

Kim

Roland

2014

Econ Transit

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We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.

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“…In related work,Singhal and Nilakantan (2016) assess the effectiveness of a security policy implemented to combat the Maoist insurgency.4 An exception isEnders et al (2016) that finds a nonlinear relationship between income level and terrorism.5 Other papers which have employed sharp breaks in the context of conflict studies includeOosterlinck (2003),Waldenström and Frey (2008), andChaney (2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Do fences make good neighbours? Evidence from an insurgency in India

Kaila¹,

Singhal²,

Tuteja³

2017

WIDER Working Paper

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provides economic analysis and policy advice with the aim of promoting sustainable and equitable development. The Institute began operations in 1985 in Helsinki, Finland, as the first research and training centre of the United Nations University. Today it is a unique blend of think tank, research institute, and UN agency-providing a range of services from policy advice to governments as well as freely available original research.

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Assessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets

Cited by 18 publications

References 9 publications

The Political Economy of Arms Export Restrictions: The Case of Japan

The Political Economy of Arms Export Restrictions: The Case of Japan

How credible is the North Korean threat?

Do fences make good neighbours? Evidence from an insurgency in India

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