Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

Abstract

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

“…Qian et al (2008) found a synergistic effect of PM 10 and high temperatures on daily cardio-respiratory (Bell et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dominici et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;IPCC, 2007a;Katsouyanni et al, 1993;Knowlton et al, 2004;Koken et al, 2003;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Ordonez et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003;Ren and Tong, 2006) ▪ The elderly and individuals with pre-existing cardio-respiratory disease may be more vulnerable to these effects Altered exposure and risk ▪ Some populations may experience increases or decreases in POP exposures and health risks depending on the region and diet of exposed individuals (Bard, 1999;Gordon, 1997;McKone et al, 1996;Watkinson et al, 2003) ▪ Pesticides may impair mechanisms of temperature regulation especially during times of thermal stress Increased susceptibility to pathogens ▪ Toxicants can suppress immune function, and climate-induced shifts in disease vector range will result in novel pathogen exposure (Abadin et al, 2007;Haines et al, 2006;Lipp et al, 2002;Nagayama et al, 2007;Patz et al, 2005;Rogers and Randolph, 2000;Smialowicz et al, 2001) ▪ Immune system impairment linked to toxicants may increase human vulnerability to climate shifts in pathogens ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible exposures may sensitize individuals to allergic disease ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible mortality in Wuhan, China. The PM 10 effects were strongest on extremely high temperature days (daily average temperature 33.1°C) and weakest during normal temperature days (daily average temperature 18°C).…”

“…Models of the New York metropolitan area have been used to estimate average summertime ozone increases from 0.3 ppb in the 1990s to 4.3 ppb by the 2050s (Knowlton et al, 2004). Cheng et al (2007) modeled future concentrations of various air pollutants (ozone, NOx, SO 2 , and suspended particulates) in four south-central Canadian cities (Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Windsor) using end of 20th century emission scenarios.…”

“…However, a number of studies suggest that the toxicity of ozone and PM will be exacerbated with global warming, and some of these data support that older adults will be especially vulnerable (Bell et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dominici et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;IPCC, 2007c;Katsouyanni et al, 1993;Knowlton et al, 2004;Koken et al, 2003;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Ordonez et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003;Ren and Tong, 2006). Other potential interactions between climate change and toxicant exposure include increased susceptibility to pathogens (Abadin et al, 2007;Nagayama et al, 2007;Smialowicz et al, 2001) and aeroallergens (D'Amato et al, 2002;Diaz-Sanchez et al, 2003;Epstein, 2005;Janssen et al, 2003).…”

“…Modeling studies also show increased mortality and morbidity with increased ozone exposure coupled with global warming (Bell et al, 2007;Knowlton et al, 2004;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003). For example, using the IPCC A2 climate scenario (i.e., high growth of CO 2 ), a 4.5% increase in ozone-related deaths in the U.S. from climate change was modeled for the mid 2050s compared to the 1990s (Knowlton et al, 2004).…”

“…For example, using the IPCC A2 climate scenario (i.e., high growth of CO 2 ), a 4.5% increase in ozone-related deaths in the U.S. from climate change was modeled for the mid 2050s compared to the 1990s (Knowlton et al, 2004). Similarly, Bell et al (2007) estimated elevated ozone in 50 U.S. cities applying the IPCC A2 climate scenario and found a corresponding increase in daily total mortality of 0.11% to 0.27%.…”