Assessing natural global catastrophic risks

Abstract

The risk of global catastrophe from natural sources may be significantly larger than previous analyses have found. In the study of global catastrophic risk (GCR), one line of thinking posits that deep human history renders natural GCRs insignificant. Essentially, the fact that natural hazards did not cause human extinction at any previous time makes it unlikely that they would do so now. This paper finds flaws in this argument, refines the theory of natural GCR, analyzes the space of natural GCRs, and presents implications for decision-making and research. The paper analyzes natural climate change, natural pandemics, near-Earth objects (asteroids, comets, and meteors), space weather (coronal mass ejections, solar flares, and solar particle events), stellar explosions (gamma-ray bursts and supernovae), and volcanic eruptions. Almost all natural GCR scenarios involve important interactions between the natural hazard and human civilization. Several natural GCR scenarios may have high ongoing probability. Deep human history provides little information about the resilience of modern global civilization to natural global catastrophes. The natural GCRs should not be dismissed on grounds of deep human history. Work on natural GCRs should account for their important human dimensions. A case can even be made for abandoning the distinction between natural and anthropogenic GCR.

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

“…Solar flares are bursts of x-and gamma rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation that can disrupt communication technology. [36][37][38] Other research emphasizes the effect of coronal mass ejections on the American power grid. [39] This type of solar activity releases supercharged plasma particles toward the earth, creating a geomagnetic storm that acts like a natural EMP toward the electrical grid with potentially devastating consequences.…”

“…[ 39 ] This type of solar activity releases supercharged plasma particles toward the earth, creating a geomagnetic storm that acts like a natural EMP toward the electrical grid with potentially devastating consequences. [ 35,36,40 ] Like HEMPs, coronal mass ejections can permanently damage large power transformers and thus potentially cause power outages lasting for years. [ 35 ] Globally coordinated cyber‐attacks on many electrical grids or critical industrial infrastructures pose a threat on a global catastrophic scale.…”