Assessing model risk in financial and energy markets using dynamic conditional VaRs

Abstract

It has been recognized that model risk has an important effect on any risk measurement procedures, particularly when dealing with complex markets and in the presence of a wide range of implemented models. We consider a normalized measure of model risk for the forecast of daily Value‐at‐Risk, combined with a model selection and an averaging procedure. This allows us to restrict the set of plausible models on a daily basis, making the initial choice of competing models less crucial and then yielding a more reliable assessment of model risk. Using AR‐GARCH‐type models with different distributions for the innovations, we assess the dynamics of model risk for different financial assets (a stock, an equity index, an exchange rate) and commodities (electricity, crude oil and natural gas) over 15 years.