Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources: Analyzing the influence of extractable global resources

Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources

“…Roper [22] in the higher Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) scenario has production increasing from 5.4 Mt/y in 2014 to 7 Mt/y in a couple of years. By contrast, Calvo et al [24] has production reaching 7 Mt/y in~2060. Another difference is the assumptions regarding Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR).…”

“…Roper [22] projects a peak of 5.5-7 Mt/y before 2020, which is similar to Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir [23], who estimate that production is currently at its peak. By contrast, Calvo et al [24] project peak production for lead to occur in 2128 at approximately 9 Mt/y. Two reasons are apparent for the differences.…”

“…Three projections of lead and zinc supplies have recently been conducted [22][23][24]. All three studies modelled global production only for lead and zinc on an aggregated basis, rather than a country-by-country basis.…”

“…All three studies modelled global production only for lead and zinc on an aggregated basis, rather than a country-by-country basis. Roper [22] and Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir [23] used multicyclic Hubbert Curve techniques, and Calvo et al [24] applied a single Gaussian/normal distribution curve to project individual metals' production. Despite the similar approaches, the results differ considerably.…”

“…While Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir [23] do not state the URR used, it is believed to be similar to Roper [22] in the range of 340-430 Mt. Calvo et al [24] use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) identified world lead resource estimate of 2000 Mt [25]. With cumulative production, this figure would equate to a URR of~2300 Mt, which is significantly higher than in the other models.…”