Assessing landslide characteristics in a changing climate in northern Taiwan

Chen, Chi-Wen; Tung, Yu-Shiang; Liou, Jyh‐Ming; Li, Hsin-Chi; Cheng, Chao‐Tzuen; Chen, Ming-Fong; Oguchi, Takashi

doi:10.1016/j.catena.2018.12.023

Cited by 40 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Here we further separated typhoon events into the top 5%, 5%-10%, and 10%-15% to confirm possible changes in landslide-area characteristics from the base period to the end of the 21st century. Previous studies in Taiwan often used m01 and c0 as simulation scenarios for the base period and the end of the 21st century, and they explored the impact of climate change [16,36,37]. Figure 4 shows the landslide-area characteristics of the top 5%, 5%-10%, and 10%-15% typhoons during the base period and the end of the 21st century in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment simulated only with the m01 and c0 scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, if we consider the uncertainty of the simulations, the 95% confidence intervals at the base period and the end of the 21st century almost overlap (red and blue areas in Figure 4), which means that this result cannot really explain the difference between the present and the future. Chen et al [16] also pointed out that the future is full of uncertainty, for changes in human activities and the efficiency of carbon reduction will bring additional effects, which may lead to different possibilities. More climate change scenarios must be incorporated, and the ensemble method must be employed to achieve more reliable results.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, in the Xindian River catchment, they were completely separated. Chen et al [16] indicated that under the impact of climate change, both the landslide severity and the landslide frequency will increase more in the Xindian River catchment than in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment, owing to the increased possibility of the occurrence of a strong typhoon and the higher rainfall intensity during a typhoon event [20][21][22]. This is why the changes in the landslide-area characteristics of the Xindian River catchment during extreme typhoon events under climate change are more significant than those of the Shihmen Reservoir catchment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chen et al [16] established the relationship between rainfall conditions and landslide-area characteristics for two catchments in northern Taiwan, the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment ( Figure 2). They found that the landslide-area characteristics in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment are highly correlated with cumulative rainfall during a typhoon event.…”

Section: Calculation Of Landslide-area Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then the changes of cumulative rainfall and peak rainfall intensity will be different in different Water 2020, 12, 564 6 of 16 regions, which will greatly affect the local landslide-area characteristics. Chen et al [16] estimated the impact of climate change on landslide-area characteristics for the two catchments but only used single scenarios, m01 and c0, for the base period and the end of the 21st century, respectively. As we mentioned in Section 2, climate change is so full of uncertainty that there are many possible scenarios for the present and the future.…”

Section: Of 16mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Chen

Chao

et al. 2020

Water

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Affected by climate change owing to global warming, the frequency of extreme rainfall events has gradually increased in recent years. Many studies have analyzed the impacts of climate change in various fields. However, uncertainty about the scenarios they used is still an important issue. This study used two and four multi-scenarios at the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) to collect the top-ranking typhoons and analyze the rainfall conditions of these typhoons in two catchments in northern Taiwan. The landslide-area characteristics caused by these typhoons were estimated using empirical relationships, with rainfall conditions established by a previous study. In addition to counting landslide-area characteristics caused by the typhoons of each single scenario, we also used the ensemble method to combine all scenarios to calculate landslide-area characteristic statistics. Comparing the statistical results of each single scenario and the ensembles, we found that the ensemble method minimized the uncertainty and identified the possible most severe case from the simulation. We further separated typhoons into the top 5%, 5%–10%, and 10%–15% to confirm possible changes in landslide-area characteristics under climate change. We noticed that the uncertainty of the base period and the end of the 21st century almost overlapped if only a single scenario was used. In contrast, the ensemble approach successfully distinguished the differences in both the average values of landslide-area characteristics and the 95% confidence intervals. The ensemble results indicated that the landslide magnitude triggered by medium- and high-level typhoons (top 5%–15%) will increase by 24%–29% and 125%–200% under climate change in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment, respectively, while landslides triggered by extreme-level typhoons (top 5%) will increase by 8% and 77%, respectively. Still, the uncertainty of landslide-area characteristics caused by extreme typhoon events is slightly high, indicating that we need to include more possible scenarios in future work.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Calculation Of Landslide-area Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Of 16mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Chen

Chao

et al. 2020

Water

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Association of Climate Change to Landslide Vulnerability and Occurrences in Bhutan

Chettri

Tempa

Gurung

et al. 2022

Disaster Risk Reduction

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Effect of climate change induced extreme precipitation on landslide activity in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Zhu

Song

et al. 2020

Bull Eng Geol Environ

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Climate change has caused an increase in extreme rainfall and snowfall in many parts of the world. For example, in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, annual precipitation has gradually increased and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events has become more frequent. As the reservoir water level rises in October, the high water combined with heavy precipitation creates a "special hydrological environment," which recently caused the Yanguan landslide. The Yanguan landslide is a large-scale soil landslide that has undergone two slides, pushed the Yanguan Road Bridge into the reservoir, and caused serious damage to roads and buildings. In the present study, the combined effects of high water and heavy precipitation on landslide deformation characteristics (movement patterns and evolution processes) have been analyzed and a stability evaluation was conducted through a field investigation and numerical simulation. To comparatively analyze these combined effects of high water and heavy precipitation, a two-dimensional finite element model was created, and four cases of the hydrological environment were calculated with the model. Results show that the factor of safety was maintained in the range of 1.013 to 1.059 before the precipitation conditions changed. However, as heavy precipitation increased in October 2017 (reaching 356.4 mm in 1 month), this "special hydrological environment" potentially decreased the FoS to 0.948, which is 9.6% lower than that observed under normal conditions, and helped drive the Yanguan landslide activity. The analysis of these various combined effects can also indicate the impacts of climate change on landslides in other areas of the Three Gorges Reservoir.

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Assessing landslide characteristics in a changing climate in northern Taiwan

Cited by 40 publications

References 49 publications

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Association of Climate Change to Landslide Vulnerability and Occurrences in Bhutan

Effect of climate change induced extreme precipitation on landslide activity in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

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