Assessing implicit hypotheses in life table construction

Lledó, Josep; Pavía, José M.; Morillas, Francisco

doi:10.1080/03461238.2016.1177585

Cited by 13 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…Demographic data available in official statistical agencies are not perfect (Cairns et al, 2016; Kelly, 1987; Lledó et al, 2017), as is the case with INE data. INE agents pointed out that when an immigrant does not know the exact day of his/her birth, this date is administratively set to be 1 January.…”

Section: Exemplifying the Methodology An Application To Spainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The more popular (annual) period‐based estimators used nowadays approximate central death rates,

m_{x}

, after implicitly assuming (Lledó et al, 2019) hypotheses (H1)–(H3), while the less hypothesis‐demanding, but more data‐demanding, (annual) cohort‐based estimators obtain death probability estimates,

q_{x}

, by implicitly imposing (Lledó et al, 2017; Pavía et al, 2012) hypotheses (H1) and (H2). Whatever the approach, all previous studies on mortality had one thing in common: the biometric variables were computed based on annual figures and the life tables of dying and surviving probabilities were only offered for integer ages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extensive literature has also revealed strong seasonal patterns in conceptions and births (Ellison et al, 2005; Lam & Miron, 1994), pointing to an increase in conceptions during spring and summer (Lam & Miron, 1996) and as a response to the religious calendar (Herteliu et al, 2015). They have also happened in response to extraordinary events, such as the end of a war (as was the case, for instance, after the end of the Spanish Civil War; Lledó et al, 2017). The hypotheses of uniformity of migratory flows have been equally analysed and, as a rule, rejected (Lledó et al, 2017, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of the Combined Effects of Ageing and Seasonality on Mortality Risk: An Application to Spain

Pavía

Lledó

2021

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra-annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub-annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and day) of events, concurrently accounts for ageing and calendar fluctuations. This paper also shows how modelling the intra-annual variations of death rates, through specific seasonal-ageing indexes, can be used as a tool for constructing new sub-annual tables from annual tables. This new methodology is exemplified using a real database of Spain made up of 186 million demographic events (1.5 million of which are deaths), from which seasonal-ageing indexes are estimated and conclusions drawn. First, seasonal effects are, as a rule, stronger than ageing effects. For a given integer age, season has a higher impact on increasing or decreasing the average risk of death at that age than the actual age of the exposed-to-risk. Second, the intensity of the effects varies among seasons and age-quarters. Third, neither seasonal nor ageing effects are age-stationary.

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Section: Exemplifying the Methodology An Application To Spainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The more popular (annual) period‐based estimators used nowadays approximate central death rates,

m_{x}

q_{x}

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of the Combined Effects of Ageing and Seasonality on Mortality Risk: An Application to Spain

Pavía

Lledó

2021

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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“…El análisis de la distribución temporal de la natalidad de una población es relevante para la construcción de las tablas de vida o mortalidad (Pavía et al, 2012;Lledó et al, 2016). La tabla de vida mide la incidencia de la mortalidad sobre la población residente en el país durante un año para cada una de las edades.…”

Section: Conclusionesunclassified

“…The analysis of the time distribution of birth for a population is relevant for the creation of mortality or life tables (Pavía et al, 2012;Lledó et al, 2016). Life tables measure the incidence of mortality for the population residing in a country for one year for each of the ages.…”

Section: Week Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformaciones en la distribución semanal de nacimientos. Un análisis temporal 1940-2010

Lledó¹,

Pavía²,

Jurado³

2024

REIS

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ResumenEl estudio de la estacionalidad de los nacimientos es una cuestión que ha recibido una importante atención en la literatura. La evidencia empírica muestra que las distribuciones anuales de nacimientos han evolucionado desde patrones de fecundidad regulados por el medio ambiente hacia modelos dominados por factores socioculturales. Este trabajo profundiza en esta literatura estudiando la distribución semanal de nacimientos y su evolución durante las últimas décadas. Utilizando datos del padrón de habitantes de la Comunitat Valenciana (n=3.674.110), mostramos empíricamente que la organización actual de los tiempos de trabajo en el sector sanitario está impactando sobre la distribución semanal de nacimientos, al imponer el cuerpo médico su posición hegemónica. Se constata un cambio en la distribución de nacimientos, por días de la semana, desde mediados del siglo xx hasta la actualidad. KeywordsValencian Community • Births • Healthcare Organization • Healthcare Policy AbstractThe seasonality of births is an issue that has received much attention in the literature. Empirical evidence has revealed that annual birth distributions have evolved from environmentally-regulated fertility patterns to models that are dominated by socio-cultural factors. This study expands upon this literature by examining the weekly distribution of births and its evolution over the past decades. Using the micro-data of the municipal register files of the Valencian Community (n=3,674,110), we empirically reveal that the current organization of work schedules in the healthcare sector impacts the weekly distribution of births, resulting in the hegemonic position of the medical profession. This has been confirmed by the change in the distribution of births, by days of the week, since the mid-20th century until the present date. El siglo xx se ha caracterizado por ser un período de profundos cambios sociales y económicos en los países europeos. El advenimiento de los sistemas de bienestar social, la incorporación masiva de la mujer al mercado laboral y la reducción, homogeneización y regulación progresiva de las jornadas laborales son algunos de los hitos más destacables (Juárez, 1993;Muñoz de Bustillo, 2003;Poal, 1993;Mósesdóttir et al., 2006; Olmos y Silva, 2011). Junto a una reducción global de la jornada laboral, también hemos asistido a una concentración del tiempo de trabajo (y de ocio) en las mismas horas del día, los mismos días de la semana y las mismas semanas del año (Prieto et al., 2008). Cómo citarProgresivamente, la sociedad actual ha ido tomando conciencia de la importancia del tiempo, al tratarse de un elemento no intercambiable ni recuperable. En la actualidad el problema reside no tanto en la cantidad de tiempo trabajado sino en la organización del mismo, y en su adecuación a las necesidades sociales y familiares. Esta armonización y optimización del tiempo impacta en el proyecto reproductivo y especialmente en la planificación de la maternidad. En este sentido, el estudio de la estacionalidad de los nacimientos ha sido u...

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