Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula

Calheiros, Tomás; Pereira, Mário; Nunes, João Pedro

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233

Cited by 61 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…From a spatial standpoint, the mediterranean coast CT domain (zone 2) largely matches fire regime zones delineated in the region (Rodrigues et al, 2020;Rodrigues et al, 2019a;Trigo et al, 2016) Vieira, Russo and Trigo, 2018). According to Calheiros, Pereira and Nunes (2021), this region is likely to persist over time and the frequency of days experiencing extreme fire-weather conditions will increase; an analysis that should consider the aforementioned CT modes influencing this domain in future analysis. Our domain delimitation assigns the rest of the IP into a single cluster (zone 1), despite the known variety of driving forces and different fire regimes (Nunes et al, 2016;Rodrigues et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐Temporal Domains of Wildfire‐Prone Teleconnection Patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Rodrígues

Mariani

Russo

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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This work explores the main climate teleconnections influencing the Western Mediterranean Basin to outline homogeneous fire‐prone weather domains combining cross‐correlation time series and cluster analysis. We found a zonal effect of the Scandinavian pattern over the entire region with an interesting alternation of phases from positive during winter‐spring (increased rainfall leading to fuel accumulation) to negative (dry conditions) modes during summer controlling burned area and fire size. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominates the number of fires over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) while the Western Mediterranean Oscillation pattern modulates fire activity over the Mediterranean coast in the IP (linked to westerly winds), Southern France, Corsica and Sardinia (rainfall regulation). These distinctive influence traits resulted in three different domains splitting the IP into a Mediterranean rim along the coast (from southern Spain to southwestern France) and an inland and western region (Portugal plus western Spain); and a third in southeastern France, Corsica and Sardinia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐Temporal Domains of Wildfire‐Prone Teleconnection Patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Rodrígues

Mariani

Russo

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The importance of extreme weather for the occurrence of large wildfires in Portugal have been already pointed out in several studies (Trigo et al, 2006;Parente et al, 2019;T. Calheiros, J.P. Nunes and Pereira, 2020;Calheiros, Pereira and Nunes, 2021). Large wildfires (BA>100 ha) are essentially dependent on the existence of extreme fire weather and small and medium size wildfires are much more dependent on the daily and annual (weather/vegetation) cycles (Telesca and Pereira, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Almost 90% of extreme fires during the 1981-2017 period occurred within a region affected by drought (Parente et al, 2019). Fire weather in Portugal has usually been characterized using the CFFWIS (Calheiros et al, 2021;Calheiros et al, 2020;Silva et al, 2019;Nunes et al, 2019;Pereira et al, 2013;Carvalho et al, 2008), which provides good results in comparison with other methods of fire danger evaluation (Viegas et al, 1999).…”

Section: Study Area: Portugalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial variability in the relation between fire weather and burned area: patterns and drivers in Portugal

Calheiros

Benali

Silva

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather conditions on wildfire behaviour and the high Daily Severity Rating percentile (DSRp) is strongly related to the total burned area (BA) in Portugal. The aims of this study were to: 1) assess if the 90th DSRp (DSR90p) threshold is adequate for Portugal; 2) identify and characterize regional variations of the DSRp threshold that justifies the bulk of BA; and, 3) analyse if vegetation cover can explain the DSRp spatial variability. We used wildfire data, weather reanalysis data from ERA5, for the 2001–2019 period, and the land use map for Portugal. DSRp were computed for an extended summer period and combined with individual large wildfires. Cluster analysis was performed using the relationship between DSRp and BA, in each municipality. Results revealed that the DSR90p is an adequate threshold for Portugal and well related to large BA. However, at the municipality scale, differences appear between the DSRp linked to the majority of accumulated BA. Cluster analysis revealed that municipalities where large wildfires occur in high DSRp present higher BA in forests and are located in coastal areas. In contrast, clusters with lower DSRp present greater BA in shrublands and are situated in eastern regions. These findings can support better prevention and fire suppression planning.

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“…Therefore, it is obvious that the presence of biomass of grassy areas affected by management practices is only a precondition for fire risk [35] because weather conditions and the occurrence of drought also play important roles [51][52][53]. It is commonly assumed that air temperature exceeding 24 • C, relative air humidity above 40%, a lack of precipitation, and a lack of clouds or low cloudiness are parameters that determine fire weather conditions [54][55][56], during which over 60% of plant biomass fires are produced. Biomass humidity at 30% is the boundary level, above which the development of fire from point heat sources and its propagation is rather improbable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significance of Urban Vegetation on Lawns Regarding the Risk of Fire

et al. 2021

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Urban green infrastructure significantly influences the functioning of a city and the comfort of its residents. Lawns are an essential element of public greenery. They represent a live component, and if they are lacking, of low quality, or neglected, this will cause major problems in the urban environment. The vegetation structure of urban grassy areas changes under the influence of different management methods used for their maintenance. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the species diversity of urban lawns and to determine the influence of this vegetation on factors based on the representation of the species found. Three sites with urban lawns were chosen in a built-up city area where different types of vegetation management were applied: Typical management, in which grassy areas are mowed twice a year; intensive management, in which lawns are mowed several times a year and the biomass is removed; and extensive management, in which lawns are mowed irregularly, once a year at most, and the biomass is left unevenly on the site. Extensive management and unkempt urban grassy areas represent a high risk of fire due to the presence of plant species that produce great amounts of biomass. Combined with dry and warm weather, the dead biomass can lead to outbreaks of fire. Extensive management of urban grassy areas brings some benefits, such as lower maintenance costs and increased biodiversity and bioretention. On the other hand, intensive management reduces the risk of fire and the biodiversity of the plant community. Attention should be paid to the composition of vegetative species and their functions that could threaten the safety of residents, with the risk of fire being one of them. However, the vegetation biomass of grassy areas affected by management practices is only a precondition for the risk of fire because weather and drought occurrence play important roles as well.

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Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula

Cited by 61 publications

References 76 publications

Spatio‐Temporal Domains of Wildfire‐Prone Teleconnection Patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Spatio‐Temporal Domains of Wildfire‐Prone Teleconnection Patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Spatial variability in the relation between fire weather and burned area: patterns and drivers in Portugal

Significance of Urban Vegetation on Lawns Regarding the Risk of Fire

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