Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Abstract

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chemical and isotopic markers detect water deficit and its influence on nutrient allocation in Phaseolus vulgaris

“…This is particularly important as atmospheric [CO 2 ] increases thus reducing nutrient availability for some of the major food crops as a consequence of carbon dilution and/or reductions in mass flow (see, Myers et al ). In areas where P. vulgaris is produced, the prevalence of drought is expected to increase (Eitzinger et al ), realising the impact of both water deficit and elevated [CO 2 ] will be critical as plant responses are not always what has been predicted for single stress studies (see, Gray et al ). Overall, the impact of a mild water deficit elicited isohydric behaviour in P. vulgaris , altering carbon isotope abundance but not translating to any significant treatment differences in WUE or nutrient content of the grain across development.…”

“…Consistent production will be challenged, particularly in tropical regions, as yield will become negatively impacted by climate change as altered rainfall patterns increase the effect of drought (Lobell and Burke ). In particular, in Central America where P. vulgaris is an important subsistence crop, yield volumes are expected to become more variable, therefore farmers will need to source genotypes adapted to heat and drought stress, shift management practices and in some cases change crops altogether (Eitzinger et al ).…”

Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in Central America and Mexico: current knowledge and research gaps

“…Although most of measures can be considered coping strategies, some such as migration, the establishment of payment for ecosystem services, the promotion of agroforesty and forest restoration can be considered transformative measures (see Richards & Howden, 2012). Most of the recommendations that we found in the studies we reviewed focus on coffee and basic grains farmers and are related to changes in practices, including those that focus on soil conservation and aim to improve soil fertility, and the use of agroforestry (Adaptation Partnership, 2012; Alonso, 2011;Cafedirect & GTZ, 2008;Cathalac, 2008;Eitzinger et al, 2017;Holt-Gimenez, 2002;Laderach et al, 2013;Morris, Méndez, Van Zonneveld, Gerlicz, & Caswell, 2016;Schroth et al, 2009) (Table 5). Regarding farmer's livelihoods and capacity, measures recommended in most of the studies we reviewed include crop diversification, the use of more resistant plants and seeds, the improvement in the capacity of farmers on climate change resilience and climate change adaptation, and establishment of farmers organizations (Adaptation Partnership, 2012;Alonso, 2011;Cafedirect & GTZ, 2008;Castellanos & Guerra, 2009;Cathalac, 2008;Eakin, Tucker, & Castellanos, 2006a;Eitzinger et al, 2017;Laderach et al, 2013;Martinez, 2012;Mercer, Perales, & Wainwright, 2011;Oropeza, 2007;PNUD, 2013;Saldaña-Zorrilla, 2008;Schroth et al, 2009;Schmidt et al, 2012).…”

“…Five studies are more specific in their recommendations. For example, Schmidt et al (2012) present a list of recommendations to be implemented in locations with specific combinations of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity of famers to climate change and Eitzinger et al (2017) do so based on the impacts of climate change on crop suitability. Adaptation Partnership (2012) evaluates different adaptation measures based on their cost, feasibility, effectiveness, and additional social, economic and environmental benefits provided, and shows that the introduction of agroforestry systems, the strengthening of local capacities and the installation of improved irrigations are the most cost-effective measures in reducing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change among those that they reviewed.…”

Estimating the potential yield and ETc of winter wheat across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future with the modified DSSAT model

“…and widely used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crops growth and yields. Now the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is one of the most influential models 16 , and has been used to study the potential effects of drought on winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain 17 , future yield changes of spring wheat on the Canadian Prairies 18 , and production of dry beans in central America 19 .…”