This paper describes a methodology for estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of urban fuel loadings using San Jose, California, as a case study. The study was undertaken to provide basic inputs into the modeling of large urban fires ignited by nuclear explosions, which has important implications for studies of the global climatic effects of nuclear war, or the so-called 'nuclear winter' phenomenon. The methodology is based on the measurement of the numbers and sizes of different building occupancy types from aerial photographs for approximately 6OOO grid cells covering the study area. These measurements were combined with literaturederived average fuel loadings for each building type to yield the total fuel loading per cell. The total fuel loading thus calculated is approximately 4558.56 x lo6 kg, yielding an average of 8.4 kg m-' (1.7 lb ft-') for the built-up area of the city and 9.4 kg m-' (1.9 Ib ft-') if unoccupied cells (i.e. cells containing no fuel) within the built-up area are excluded. These figures are lower than previously published average values, due to the lowdensity character of San Jose and the exclusion of certain components of total fuel loading by the methodology.
INTRODUCTIONThis paper describes a methodology for estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of fuel loadings in urban areas, using San Jose, California, as a case study. The stud) was undertaken to provide the data necessary for modeling the dynamics of large urban fires resulting from nuclear explosions.' Such modeling has important implications for studies of the global climatic effects of nuclear war, the so-called 'nuclear winter' phenomenon, since the amount and character of smoke produced in urban fire\ is hypothesized to be a main determinant of the net reduction in global temperatures that might r e~u l t .~-~ The spread and severity of such fires is dependent not only on the total amount of fuel available for combustion but also on the spatial distribution of fuel, including local variations in building densities and combustible material types and amounts, and the location, orientation and width of fire breaks. Areas of high building density facilitate the spread of fire by radiation, convection, conduction and fire brands. In contrast, discontinuities associated with natural and man-made fire break\ such as freeways, rivers, reservoirs, parks and undeveloped land tend to impede the spread of fire.Simulations using urban fire spread models suggest that variations in the spatial distribution of fuel can have a significant impact on the pattern of fire spread, the rate of fuel consumption and the quantity of fuel b~r n e d .~The ability of the nuclear winter thesis to affect changes in nuclear policy, such as those proposed by Sagan,'j is highly dependent on the perceived reliability of the scientific evidence on which it is based. This issue is particularly problematic in the case of nuclear winter due to a lack of adequate and accurate data for a large set of required parameters, the existence of essent...