Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models

Oke, Tobi A.; Hager, Heather A.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0175978

Cited by 26 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…As expected, the total suitable area reduced in the future climate scenarios, especially in RCP8.5, which suggested that global warming would hinder the development of Sphagnum bogs seriously. Conversely, the different conclusion was drawn in North America [41]. The reason, as described by Gunnarsson, might be that climatic parameters together with geographical position are important for Sphagnum bogs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period

Cong

Tang

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO 2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period

Cong

Tang

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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“…S. fuscum exhibits an efficient retention of moisture, due to its dense growth form, and therefore microforms dominated by these species may be less vulnerable to drying and deep burning than other Sphagnum species (Benscoter & Wieder, ). Combining species distribution models and climate projections, Oke and Hager () showed S. fuscum growth potential may remain stable in central‐northern Alberta until 2050 CE. Other studies suggested persisting large‐scale drying of peatlands of this region during the 21st century may eventually cause an increase in net CO 2 emissions (Cai, Flanagan, & Syed, ) and this effect may become stronger in case Sphagnum is replaced by shrubs (Munir, Xu, Perkins, & Strack, ), a trend which was observed in the upper sections of JPH4 and ANZ (Magnan et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Th-century Environmental Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Testate amoeba records indicate regional 20th‐century lowering of water tables in ombrotrophic peatlands in central‐northern Alberta, Canada

Bellen

Magnan

Davies

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Testate amoebae are abundant in the surface layers of northern peatlands. Analysis of their fossilized shell (test) assemblages allows for reconstructions of local water-table depths (WTD). We have reconstructed WTD dynamics for five peat cores from peatlands ranging in distance from the Athabasca bituminous sands (ABS) region in western Canada. Amoeba assemblages were combined with plant macrofossil records, acid-insoluble ash (AIA) fluxes and instrumental climate data to identify drivers for environmental change. Two functional traits of testate amoebae, mixotrophy and the tendency to integrate xenogenic mineral matter in test construction, were quantified to infer possible effects of AIA flux on testate amoeba presence. Age-depth models showed the cores each covered at least the last ~315 years, with some spanning the last millennium. Testate amoeba assemblages were likely affected by permafrost development in two of the peatlands, yet the most important shift in assemblages was detected after 1960 CE. This shift represents a significant apparent lowering of water tables in four out of five cores, with a mean drop of ~15 cm. Over the last 50 years, assemblages shifted towards more xerophilous taxa, a trend which was best explained by increasing Sphagnum s. Acutifolia and, to a lesser extent, mean summer temperature. This trend was most evident in the two cores from the sites located farthest away from the ABS region. AIA flux variations did not show a clear effect on mineral-agglutinating taxa, nor on S. s. Acutifolia presence. We therefore suggest the drying trend was forced by the establishment of S. s. Acutifolia, driven by enhanced productivity following regional warming. Such recent apparent drying of peatlands, which may only be reconstructed by appropriate indicators combined with high chronological control, may affect vulnerability to future burning and promote emissions of CO .

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“…Our To project the future extent of peatlands, bioclimatic envelope models and ecological niche models have been used. Oke and Hager (2017) predicted that the areas of suitable climate in North America for Sphagnum peatland should increase in the future up to 2050.…”

Section: Impact Of Peatlands On Northern Terrestrial Carbon Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

Qiu

Zhu

Ciais

et al. 2020

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim Persistent sinks of atmospheric CO2 in undisturbed peatlands are not included in future projections of the global carbon budget. We aimed to explore possible responses of northern peatlands to future climate change and to quantify the role of northern peatlands in the carbon balance of the Northern Hemisphere. Location The terrestrial Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). Time period 1861–2099. Major taxa studied Not a specific plant species, but a plant functional type is used by the model to represent an average of all vegetation growing in northern peatlands. Methods The ORCHIDEE‐PEAT v.2.0 process‐based land surface model was used to simulate area and carbon dynamics of northern peatlands. The model was driven up to the year 2099 by the global CO2 concentration from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 by corresponding climate projections from two general circulation models after bias correction. Results First, from 1861 to 2005 the mean annual carbon balance of northern peatlands was an atmospheric CO2 sink of 0.10 PgC/year, and this sink will roughly double in the future under both RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, whereas the total northern peatlands will be either a source of CO2 (IPSL‐CM5A‐LR) or near neutral (GFDL‐ESM2M) by the end of the century under RCP8.5. Second, the peatlands in western Canada, western and northern Europe may experience reducing areas and may shift from being CO2 sinks to sources, especially under rapid climate warming. Third, peatland enhances soil carbon accumulation in the Northern Hemisphere (lands north of 30° N). Main conclusions In this study, future changes in both northern peatland extent and peatland carbon storage are simulated. We highlight that undisturbed northern peatlands are small but persistent carbon sinks in the future; thus, it is important to protect these ecosystems.

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Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models

Cited by 26 publications

References 67 publications

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period

Testate amoeba records indicate regional 20th‐century lowering of water tables in ombrotrophic peatlands in central‐northern Alberta, Canada

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

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