Assessing dangerousness in policing

Abstract

Research Summary A robust body of research findings has established that policing is a dangerous profession. Few scholars, however, have investigated the full picture of the hazards in policing, which includes deaths occurring in both felonious and nonfelonious circumstances. In this study, we examine nearly 50 years of all police officer line‐of‐duty deaths (1970–2016) using data from the Officer Down Memorial Page. We focus on long‐term trends in felonious and nonfelonious deaths annually, as well as on trends in incident‐level characteristics. We also employ interrupted time‐series analysis (ARIMA) to test the “war on cops” thesis post–Ferguson. Policy Implications The number of line‐of‐duty deaths has declined dramatically over the last five decades. Policing is a much safer profession now than it was 50 years ago. Despite a 75% drop in deaths, however, there has been remarkable stability in geographic‐, temporal‐, and incident‐level characteristics. Also, several notable changes over time reflect favorably on improved safety in policing, such as declines in deaths resulting from aircraft crashes and accidental gunfire. Other trends are troubling, though, such as the stability in deaths during auto pursuits and a two‐fold increase in deaths from vehicular assaults. Currently, the “war on cops” thesis is not supported by any evidence, and we apply the 50‐year lens in this study to provide important context for understanding recent trends in officer deaths.

American Policing and the Danger Imperative

“…In recent years, some have claimed that the United States is in the grip of a "war on cops" characterized by growing disrespect and violence directed at police (Mac Donald 2016). Though scholars have found no evidence of a significant increase in violence toward police in recent years (Shjarback and Maguire 2019;Sierra-Arévalo and Nix 2020;White et al 2019), concerns over officer safety undergird new "Blue Lives Matter" laws that seek increased punishment for attacks on police (Craven 2017). This increased punitiveness is supported by officials at the highest levels of the federal government.…”

“…However, trends in violence against police suggest that policing is growing safer over time. Felonious officer deaths have decreased for half a century (White et al 2019) and recent analyses find no significant change in patterns of fatal or nonfatal assault on police officers (Maguire et al 2017;Shjarback and Maguire 2019;Sierra-Arévalo and Nix 2020). Despite the measurable decrease in line-of-duty death and injury over the past half century, officers' concern with the mortal danger of their work continues to shape police socialization, culture, and practice (Ingram et al 2018;Sierra-Arévalo 2019b).…”

Gun victimization in the line of duty

“…Despite the marked declines in line-of-duty deaths among police officers over the past 50 years (White et al, 2019), violence against police remains a problem that affects public perception, police practice, and policy in the United States (Moule, 2019;Sierra-Arévalo, 2016;Stoughton, 2016). And although scholars have done well to leverage available data to empirically assess violence against police, long-standing definitional and data quality issues continue to hamper the timely and precise estimation of the most lethal threat officers face: firearm assault.…”

“…LEOKA has also been used to examine felonious officer deaths at the national (Swedler, Simmons, Dominici, & Hemenway, 2015), regional (Fridell & Pate, 1995), and county level (Kaminski, 2008). Finally, other scholars have moved beyond LEOKA and turned to the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS; Blair, Fowler, Betz, & Baumgardner, 2016), the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS; Bierie, 2017;Bierie et al, 2016;Willits, 2014), or data collected by nonprofit organizations like the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF) or the Officer Down Memorial Page (Kaminski & Marvell, 2002;Maguire et al, 2017;White et al, 2019) to explore patterns in felonious police deaths.…”

“…Scholars have noted for some time, however, that analyses focused on felonious line-of-duty deaths systematically underestimate the full scope of danger that officers face by excluding nonfatal assaults (see Brandl, 1996). Accordingly, other research has analyzed nonfatal assaults, specifically (Shjarback & Maguire, 2019;Tiesman et al, 2018), both fatal and nonfatal assaults (Crifasi, Pollack, & Webster, 2016;Fridell, Faggiani, Taylor, Brito, & Kubu, 2009), or some combination of fatal assaults, nonfatal assaults, and line-of-duty accidents (Brandl, 1996;White et al, 2019). These related streams of research provide invaluable insight but, of course, also come with important limitations.…”