Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021

Abstract

We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015–2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.

Excess suicides in Brazil during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: Gender, regional and age group inequalities

“…Likewise, there was excess suicide in at least one of the 4-month periods, regardless of gender, in the North, Southeast, and especially the Northeast regions, where 83.3% (55/30) more suicides than expected occurred among women 60 years old and older from July to October 2021. The 4-month period of July to October 2021 is closely situated with the 2 months following the great mortality peak due to COVID-19 in Brazil (Colonia et al, 2023).…”

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess maternal deaths in Brazil: A two-year assessment

“…Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) of the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period of 2015 to 2022. Given Brazil’s vast regional inequities in COVID-19 outcomes [ 12 , 13 ], the country’s five macroregions (North, Northeast, Central-West, South, Southeast) were employed as units of analysis. The North and Northeast regions of the country are historically socioeconomically disadvantaged as compared to Brazil’s Southeast and South, the centers of Brazil’s industrial capacity and urbanization [ 14 ].…”

A simulation of undiagnosed population and excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…In fact, studies have been recently reported showing that a reasonable estimate of excess mortality figures is also possible from only the age-specific prevalence and incidence data for a disease condition [13] . Excess mortality has therefore emerged as a valuable tool for estimating the impact of COVID-19 in various countries [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , being extensively utilized in academic literature and presently as well as by World Health Organization (WHO) [18] . For 2020–21 WHO has estimated around 15 million excess deaths occurred globally [19] .…”