Assessing concerns for the economic consequence of the COVID-19 response and mental health problems associated with economic vulnerability and negative economic shock in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom

Abstract

Many different countries have been under lockdown or extreme social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19. The potentially far-reaching side effects of these measures have not yet been fully understood. In this study we analyse the results of a multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N = 3,504), Spain (N = 3,524) and the United Kingdom (N = 3,523), with two separate analyses. In the first analysis, we examine the elicitation of citizens’ concerns over the downplaying of the economic consequences of the lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. We control for Social Desirability Bias through a list experiment included in the survey. In the second analysis, we examine the data from the same survey to predict the level of stress, anxiety and depression associated with being economically vulnerable and having been affected by a negative economic shock. To accomplish this, we have used a prediction algorithm based on machine learning techniques. To quantify the size of this affected population, we compare its magnitude with the number of people affected by COVID-19 using measures of susceptibility, vulnerability and behavioural change collected in the same questionnaire. We find that the concern for the economy and for “the way out” of the lockdown is diffuse and there is evidence of minor underreporting. Additionally, we estimate that around 42.8% of the populations in the three countries are at high risk of stress, anxiety, and depression, based on their level of economic vulnerability and their exposure to a negative economic shock.

Negative shocks predict change in cognitive function and preferences: assessing the negative affect and stress hypothesis

“…2, Q27). Additionally, from our companion paper on the same data 46 , we have a measure of the likelihood of being under stress, anxiety and depression, conditional on being economically vulnerable and having been exposed to a shock, using a machine learning algorithm.…”

“…2 [18][19][20][21]27,[24][25][26]. Wave one is described and analyzed in Codagnone et al 46 . All questions are standardized and psychometrically validated.…”

“…The following are the predictors used in the model: household income, a dummy for unemployed, a dummy for homeownership, living space, household size, number of children of school age, financial buffer stock, negative events that occurred in the previous week, and change in income or earnings (SOM, Sect. 2, Wave 1 Questionnaire, Q5, Q7, Q9, Q10, Q11, Q13, Q17a/b/c/d/e/f/h/i, Q27) 46 .…”

Post-Traumatic Growth and Stress-Related Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a National Representative Sample: The Role of Positive Core Beliefs About the World and Others

“…There are compelling reasons to expect significant increases in mental health problems in many sectors of the population during and after the current pandemic crisis (Galea et al 2020 ), particularly in countries with higher levels of economic vulnerability (Codagnone et al 2020 ). First, a permanent and universal threat of infection can have lasting psychological effects because of the inherently associated uncertainty (Taha et al 2014 ).…”

An Overview of Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…The detrimental effects on mental health resulting from the prolonged exposure to the stress imposed by the pandemic are not equally shared among the population (19). Among the vulnerable groups are the elderly (20), particularly those in institutionalized care, the recently unemployed (21), young children and adolescents (22).Essential workers and health care providers may be particularly vulnerable to mental health difficulties due to a greater risk of disease exposure to themselves and family members, work intensification and shortages of personal protective equipment (23,24). Moreover, survivors of COVID-19 are susceptible to developing mental health issues due to the discrimination and stigma associated with infection (25).…”