Assessing capacity to deploy direct air capture technology at the country level – an expert and information entropy comparative analysis

Abstract

An ever-dwindling carbon budget, resulting in temperature rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels projected between 2030-2035, has generated a necessity to explore climate mitigation technologies such as direct air capture (DAC). DAC typically involves the use of materials and energy to capture CO2 directly from the atmosphere. However, DAC technologies remain a long way from the necessary level of development and scale needed to move the needle on carbon removal and mitigating against climate change. This study conducts a country-level analysis using an expert elicitation and an information entropy method, with a weighted group of variables identified from existing literature as necessary to develop and deploy low-temperature, electrochemical and high-temperature DAC technologies. Here we show that: 1) adopting the expert survey variable weighting, USA, Canada, China and Australia are best positioned to deploy the various DAC technologies; 2) the information entropy approach offers a broadly similar result with traditionally developed nations being best positioned, in addition to land rich countries, to deploy DAC technologies; 3) a comparatively developed policy and financing environment, as well as low carbon energy supply would raise a country’s DAC capacity; 4) developing countries such as China have significant potential to deploy DAC, owing to a well-rounded position across variables. These results produce wide-ranging policy implications for efforts to deploy climate mitigation technologies through the development of a multilateral, coordinated mitigation and carbon dioxide removal deployment strategy.

Expert insights into future trajectories: assessing cost reductions and scalability of carbon dioxide removal technologies

“…Vaughan and Gough (2016) engaged 18 climate and BECCS experts and concluded that Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) incorporated unrealistic assumptions about BECCS and its supporting infrastructure. Izikowitz et al (2023) consulted 54 experts on various criteria to identify optimal locations for DACCS plants and found that the US, Canada, China, and Australia are most favorable. Another recent study by Perdana et al (2023) analysed 260 expert opinions on the impact of different innovations for achieving Net Zero focusing on technological and non-technological decarbonization solutions (Perdana et al, 2023).…”