Assessing bias-corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models

Beaumet, Julien; Krinner, Gerhard; Déqué, Michel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Li, Laurent

doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-247

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…High-resolution polar-oriented RCMs provide more reliable estimates of the Antarctic SMB components, but they depend on their forcing boundary conditions, including SSCs. Using adequate SSCs in climate models could be as crucial as using a suitable downscaling model (Krinner et al, 2008;Beaumet et al, 2017). This is of particular importance since most general circulation models (GCMs) from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al, 2012) have failed to reproduce the SSC temporal and spatial variability in the Southern Ocean area over the last decades (Mahlstein et al, 2013;Turner et al, 2013;Shu et al, 2015;Agosta et al, 2015;Roach et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

Kittel¹,

Amory²,

Agosta

et al. 2018

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields prescribed by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). Since the recent variability of sea surface conditions (SSCs, namely sea ice concentration, SIC, and sea surface temperature, SST) over the Southern Ocean is not reproduced by most GCMs from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), RCMs are then subject to potential biases. We investigate here the direct sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to SSC perturbations around the Antarctic. With the RCM “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR), different sensitivity experiments are performed over 1979–2015 by modifying the ERA-Interim SSCs with (i) homogeneous perturbations and (ii) mean anomalies estimated from all CMIP5 models and two extreme ones, while atmospheric lateral boundary conditions remained unchanged. Results show increased (decreased) precipitation due to perturbations inducing warmer, i.e. higher SST and lower SIC (colder, i.e. lower SST and higher SIC), SSCs than ERA-Interim, significantly affecting the SMB of coastal areas, as precipitation is mainly related to cyclones that do not penetrate far into the continent. At the continental scale, significant SMB anomalies (i.e greater than the interannual variability) are found for the largest combined SST/SIC perturbations. This is notably due to moisture anomalies above the ocean, reaching sufficiently high atmospheric levels to influence accumulation rates further inland. Sensitivity experiments with warmer SSCs based on the CMIP5 biases reveal integrated SMB anomalies (+5 % to +13 %) over the present climate (1979–2015) in the lower range of the SMB increase projected for the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

Kittel¹,

Amory²,

Agosta

et al. 2018

The Cryosphere

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“…However, the global glacier mass loss estimate by Zemp et al (2019), of 0.74±0.05 mm SLE yr −1 during 2006-2016, excluding the peripheral glaciers (0.92±0.39 mm SLE yr −1 if included), is still large compared to that by Bamber et al (2018), of 0.59±0.11 mm SLE yr −1 for the same period, which is very similar to the most recent gravimetry-based estimate by Wouters et al (2019), of 0.55±0.10 mm SLE yr −1 , again for the same period (from their Table S1). This estimate is an improvement over earlier ones, by using longer time series, an updated glacier inventory (RGI 6.0), the latest GRACE releases (RL06), which are combined in an ensemble to further reduce the noise, a new GIA model (Caron et al, 2018) and new hydrology models (GLDAS V2.1 (Rodell et al, 2004;Beaudoing and Rodell, 2016), and PCR-GLOBW 2 (Sutanudjaja et al, 2018)) to remove the signal from continental hydrology.…”

Section: Th Century and Current Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges

Hanna

Pattyn

Navarro

et al. 2020

Earth-Science Reviews

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Recent research shows increasing decadal ice mass losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and more generally from glaciers worldwide in the light of continued global warming. Here, in an update of our previous ISMASS paper (Hanna et al., 2013), we review recent observational estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, and their related uncertainties, first briefly considering relevant monitoring methods. Focusing on the response to climate change during 1992-2018, and especially the post-IPCC AR5 period, we discuss recent changes in the relative contributions of ice sheets and glaciers to sea-level change. We assess recent advances in understanding of the relative importance of surface mass balance and ice dynamics in overall ice-sheet mass change. We also consider recent improvements in ice-sheet modelling, highlighting data-model linkages and the use of updated observational datasets in ice-sheet models. Finally, by identifying key deficiencies in the observations and models that hamper current understanding and limit reliability of future ice-sheet projections, we make recommendations to the research community for reducing these knowledge gaps. Our synthesis aims to provide a critical and timely review of the current state of the science in advance of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report that is due in 2021.

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“…CC BY 4.0 License. methods from Beaumet et al (2018) before being used as surface boundary conditions for the atmospheric model. Therefore, the importance of the bias of each CMIP5 model for the reconstruction of oceanic conditions around Antarctica in their historical simulation is reduced.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Over the ocean, we use a 1D version of sea-ice model GELATO (Salas y Mélia, 2002) which means that no advection of sea-ice is possible. The sea-ice thickness is prescribed following the empirical parametrization used in Krinner et al (1997Krinner et al ( , 2010 and described in Beaumet et al (2018). The use of GELATO is therefore limited to the computation of heat and moist fluxes in sea-ice covered regions and also allows taking into account for the accumulation of snow on top of sea-ice.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of uncertainties of Southern Ocean surface temperature and sea-ice change on Antarctic climate projections

Beaumet

Déqué

Krinner

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. In this study, the atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach a average horizontal resolution of 35 kilometers over Antarctica. Over the historical period (1981–2010), ARPEGE is forced by the historical sea surface conditions (SSC, i.e. sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration) from MIROC and NorESM1-M CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSC (AMIP-experiment). These three simulations are evaluated against ERA-Interim for atmospheric general circulation and against MAR regional climate model and in-situ observations for surface climate. As lower boundary conditions for simulations for the period 2071–2100, we use SSC from coupled climate model CMIP5 simulations of the same models following the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We use these output both directly and with an anomaly method based on quantile mapping. We assess the uncertainties linked to the choice of the coupled model and the impact of the method (direct output and anomalies). For the simulation using SSC from NorESM1-M, we do not find significant changes in climate change signals over Antarctica when using bias-corrected SSC. For the simulation using MIROC-ESM output, an additional increase of +185 Gt yr−1 in precipitation and of +0.8 K in winter temperatures for the grounded Antarctic ice-sheet was obtained when using bias-corrected SSC.

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Assessing bias-corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models

Cited by 4 publications

References 12 publications

Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges

Effect of uncertainties of Southern Ocean surface temperature and sea-ice change on Antarctic climate projections

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