Assessing Agricultural Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh

Abstract

The adverse impacts of climate change exert mounting pressure on agriculture-dependent livelihoods of many developing and developed nations. However, integrated and spatially specific vulnerability assessments in less-developed countries like Bangladesh are rare, and insufficient to support the decision-making needed for climate-change resilience. Here, we develop an agricultural livelihood vulnerability index (ALVI) and an integrated approach, allowing for (i) mapping out the hot spots of vulnerability distribution; (ii) identifying key factors of spatially heterogeneous vulnerability; and (iii) supporting intervention planning for adaptation. This study conceptualized vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity by developing a composite index from a reliable dataset of 64 indicators comprising biophysical, agro-ecological, and socioeconomic variables. The empirical studies of coastal Bangladesh revealed that Bhola, Patuakhali, and Lakshmipur districts, around the mouth of the deltaic Meghna estuaries, are the hot spot of vulnerability distribution. Furthermore, the spatially heterogeneous vulnerability was triggered by spatial variation of erosion, cyclones, drought, rain-fed agriculture, land degradation, soil phosphorus, crop productivity, sanitation and housing condition, infant mortality, emergency shelters, adoption of agro-technology. The integrated approach could be useful for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation intervention by substituting various hypothetical scenarios into the ALVI framework for baseline comparison.

Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

“…Step 3 (weight estimation): Weights of relevant influencing factors for each LULC type were estimated through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) [31], following a judgment matrix [20]. Moreover, an Excel-based software [32], was employed to estimate the consistency ratio (CR) for all the judgment matrix (in our case, 6 judgments) where CR of <0.10 was considered as positive evidence for an informed judgment (Table S2).…”

“…In this connection, the maximum decrease of agricultural land is predictable under the EDP (454 km 2 ) scenario, which was followed by EPP (379.22 km 2 ), ADP (355.67 km 2 ), and BAUD (211.17 km 2 ) scenarios, respectively (Table 4). Since agricultural lands are a prime source of food grain supply, preservation of agricultural farmlands could ensure sustenance of regional food and livelihood security [20,23]. Therefore, it is imperative to undertake systematic policy analysis and discussions before targeting agricultural land as a source of reclamation for any developmental activities.…”

“…Therefore, with the limited land resources and high population pressure, Bangladesh will face a significant challenge in attaining a balanced target of restoring ecological values and ensuring food security in the coming decades [23]. Nonetheless, a specific area may be given food subsidies to support ecological and environmental protection, since it will provide various invaluable regulatory and supporting services to create a buffer zone protecting the interior coastal ecosystem from climatic disasters [20,23]. Another region far from the exposed coast may be targeted for producing a surplus amount of food grains to balance the shortage in areas that require to strictly restore its ecological value by restricting agricultural expansion.…”

“…Hence, as a result of rapid economic activity along with high population pressure and environmental degradation, LULC in Bangladesh has changed very rapidly [15,16]. Empirical investigations [8,14,15,[19][20][21][22][23] have shown that along with factors like rapid population growth and economic development, land degradation, and sea-level rise are some of the other driving forces in the coastal region of Bangladesh that have led to rapid LULC transformations over different periods, and that these have been arguably more widespread and intense than in any other areas of the globe, and that these conditions continue to worsen, leading to ongoing degradation and damages in the ecological value of these vulnerable environments [8,20,23].…”

“…Since the central coastal region is one of the most significant coastal zones of Bangladesh, the features of LULC change in this region are typical to that occurring from both anthropogenic and natural processes. Over the decades, rapid LULC alterations have threatened the land management sustainability and imbalances the socio-environmental systems of this region [19,20,23]. However, insufficient work has been done in detecting future LULC changes in this vulnerable zone [8,14,15,19,21,22,24,25] and evaluating their impacts on the ESs [23].…”