Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach

Abstract

As the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss. We evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries. In general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections, while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly. Prematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination (with a high vaccination rate > 0.1%) for Italy and India before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11538-022-01064-w.

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

“…A few studies tailor their model to more than one country to showcase how variability in e.g. age distributions, age-stratified contact patterns, or implemented NPIs can affect optimal vaccine prioritization, see e.g., Gozzi et al (2021); Liu et al (2022b); Wang et al (2022); Liu et al (2022a). Other studies employ more abstract models, frequently ABMs, which are not tailored to any specific setting, see e.g., Romero-Brufau et al (2021); Grauer et al (2020); Kadelka and McCombs (2021).…”

Dynamically adjustable SVEIR(MH) model of multiwave epidemics: Estimating the effects of public health measures against COVID‐19

“…Several SEIR models reported that address modeling, simulations, and forecast of COVID-19 epidemics, 72 the effects of public health measures, 73 dynamic updates of the model using daily data for epidemic forecasting, 74,75 and simulations to assess the effects of public health measures 70,76 or their combinations, 29 vaccination, 74,77 and multiwave epidemic modeling. 78,79 The main enhancements used for epidemic modeling involve the use of machine learning for epidemic forecasting, 74,75,80 and the use of proxy measurements for the assessment of epidemic parameters such as tracing mobility from social networks, 81,82 assessing vaccination rates, 83 or using simulations to assess different epidemic scenarios while changing relevant parameters.…”

Modeling the effects of vaccination, nucleic acid testing, and face mask wearing interventions against COVID-19 in large sports events

“…Compared to the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious (SIR) model and the classic Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model, the generalized SEIR model ( 13 ) is more appropriate to reflect the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 ( 14 ), which accounts for some important characteristics of the disease, such as the latency period, death, quarantine for confirmed cases, and the protection rate of susceptible populations. Some efforts have been devoted to predict the effectiveness of various preventive strategies against COVID-19 transmission in the general population by the generalized SEIR model ( 15 – 20 ). By adjusting the protection rate of the SEIR model, the impact of vaccination ( 15 – 20 ) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) ( 15 , 16 , 18 , 20 ) have been simulated.…”

“…Some efforts have been devoted to predict the effectiveness of various preventive strategies against COVID-19 transmission in the general population by the generalized SEIR model ( 15 – 20 ). By adjusting the protection rate of the SEIR model, the impact of vaccination ( 15 – 20 ) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) ( 15 , 16 , 18 , 20 ) have been simulated. The results of some studies suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination depends on the efficacy of the vaccines used and the coverage of vaccination ( 15 , 17 – 19 ); if the population cannot be fully covered by effective vaccination, combining vaccination and NPIs is an ideal measure to reduce the number of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 ( 15 , 16 , 20 ).…”

“…By adjusting the protection rate of the SEIR model, the impact of vaccination ( 15 – 20 ) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) ( 15 , 16 , 18 , 20 ) have been simulated. The results of some studies suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination depends on the efficacy of the vaccines used and the coverage of vaccination ( 15 , 17 – 19 ); if the population cannot be fully covered by effective vaccination, combining vaccination and NPIs is an ideal measure to reduce the number of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 ( 15 , 16 , 20 ). These studies have indicated that the generalized SEIR model is useful for simulating COVID-19 dynamics in the general population during a long period of time, and the herd immunity effect of vaccination can be predicted.…”