Aspiration Versus Apprehension: Economic Opportunities and Electoral Preferences

Abstract

Recent studies take increasingly refined views of how socioeconomic conditions influence political behaviour. We add to this literature by exploring how voters' prospective evaluations of long-term economic and social opportunities relate to electoral contestation versus the stabilization of the political-economic system underpinning the knowledge society. Using survey data from eight West European countries, we show that positive prospects are associated with higher support for mainstream parties (incumbents and opposition) and lower support for radical parties on all levels of material well-being. Our results support the idea that ‘aspirational voters’ with positive evaluations of opportunities (for themselves or their children) represent an important stabilizing force in advanced democratic capitalism. However, we also highlight the importance of radical party support among ‘apprehensive voters’, who are economically secure but perceive a lack of long-term opportunities. To assess the implications of these findings, we discuss the relative importance of these groups across different countries.

Where I Stand and What I Stand For. Subjective Social Status and Attitudes Towards Redistribution

“…A key limitation of this paper relates to the specific theoretical mechanism. Even though with this data we are unable to test whether our key result is driven by 'other-regarding' preferences (Dimick et al, 2017) rooted in altruism (Andreoni, 1990;Fehr & Schmidt, 1999;Nair, 2018;Schröder & Neumayr, 2023) or in apprehension/fear (Alesina & Rodrik, 1994;Häusermann et al, 2023), these results support the broader theoretical direction of embeddedness (Granovetter, 1973;Polanyi, n.d.), as individuals with high social position consider their surrounding context in shaping their attitudes towards redistribution. This pattern highlights how subjective aspects and contextual considerations are important and compelling to illuminate the broader relationship between social stratification and its political consequences.…”

“…The opposing direction appears somewhat counter-intuitive: how can higher levels of income inequality lead to a convergence in redistribution preferences across different rungs of the social ladder? Going beyond material self-interest, the political economy literature proposes some 'other-regarding' mechanisms, such as income-dependent altruism/inequality aversion (Dimick et al, 2017;Fehr & Schmidt, 1999;Schröder & Neumayr, 2023), and apprehension/fear (Alesina & Rodrik, 1994;Häusermann et al, 2023).…”