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Regional forest management policies such should be evaluated appropriately to avoid unintended effects. The local government of the study area have impelled forestry enterprises to plant after clear-cutting inside the "zone to promote planting (zone)" since 2017. This study analyzed the differences of clear-cutting tendencies between inside and outside the zone with respect to area and locations. We calculated ATT (average treatment effect on the treated) by a statistical causal inference method: an inverse probability of treatment weighting method with propensity score. Forest age, slope degree, and distances from roads were used as covariates. As a result, ATT was -0.22％±0.11％, which means clear-cut had been avoided inside the zone compared to outside. Quantitative analysis of policy impacts, as done in this study, is fundamental for EBPM (evidence-based policy making) and sustainable forest management.

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Design and Implementation of a consensus building process for a sustainable management plan of a subtropical forest in Japan using the concept of “softzoning”. -Forest Zoning Plan in Yambaru-Kunigami Village

Design and Implementation of a consensus building process for a sustainable management plan of a subtropical forest in Japan using the concept of “softzoning”. -Forest Zoning Plan in Yambaru-Kunigami Village

Estimating the Differences of Logging Tendencies between Inside and Outside Zone to Promote Planting

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