Asia's Complex Strategic Environment: Nuclear Multipolarity and Other Dangers

Abstract

asia policy, number 11 (january 2011), 51-78 • http://asiapolicy.nbr.org • keywords: asia; nuclear weapons; security; balance of power © The National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, Washington asia policy executive summary This article evaluates the implications of nuclear multipolarity and strategic complexity in Asia. main argumentOngoing changes in traditional state-to-state nuclear dynamics are reshaping international security in Asia. Today, Asia is a multipolar nuclear environment in which long-range nuclear weapons are joined by other systems with strategic effect, and in which countries hold different views about the role and utility of nuclear weapons. This article discusses the implications of these shifts from the Cold War to the present for several guises of stability, on the one hand, and for competition and conflict, on the other. Though each of these considerations leads to dangerous outcomes in isolation, their combined effect is even more deleterious. The implications of this analysis are deeply pessimistic, both for peace in general and for U.S. national security interests in particular.[ 53 ] twomey u nuclear multipolarity and other dangers T he Cold War continues to constrain thinking about nuclear issues. In the first 20 years of the Cold War, a dynamic nuclear environment posed great risks of truly catastrophic war. Yet by the end of the 50 years of bipolar rivalry, many argued that nuclear weapons had stabilized Soviet-U.S. relations. Traditional deterrence theory, with its emphasis on calculating rationality, seemed to contribute to Americans' understanding of world events. Certainly the latter years of the rivalry saw the rise of arms control efforts within and beyond the nuclear arena that facilitated the end of the Cold War. Throughout that period, the two primary nuclear powers developed sophisticated national security apparatuses with an increasingly deep understanding of the efficacies and dangers of nuclear weapons. Few of these factors speak to the nuclear environment in Asia today.It is increasingly clear that the second nuclear age is upon us. 1 Much work on this epochal shift focuses both on the role of asymmetry in nuclear balances and on the role of nonstate actors. 2 Indeed, some analysts characterize this situation in pejorative terms: an advanced set of nuclear "haves" declaring less developed latecomers to be the primary source of danger in the nuclear order smacks of hypocrisy and Orientalism. 3 This article argues that these elements of the second nuclear age, while important, are complemented by three ongoing changes in traditional state-to-state nuclear dynamics that are even more important: the nuclear environment is multipolar, long-range nuclear weapons are joined by other systems with strategic effect, and many countries hold different views about the role and utility of nuclear weapons. These three changes are manifest most clearly in Asia since the Cold War. While each change leads to dangerous outcomes in isolation, their combined effects are even more dele...

Nuclear Submarines in South Asia: New Risks and Dangers

“…During such periods, there may be inadvertent attacks on submarines carrying nuclear weapons because these are intermingled with submarines carrying only conventional weapons. Such concerns have been explored in the context of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, as well as in the US-China context (Posen 1992;Twomey 2011;Christensen 2012). Some notable instances occurred during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when US ships used practice depth charges against Soviet nuclear-armed submarines and almost led to the use of nuclear weapons (Burr and Blanton 2002).…”