Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies

Abstract

We study the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets using establishment-level data on the near universe of online vacancies in the United States from 2010 onward. There is rapid growth in AI-related vacancies over 2010-18 that is driven by establishments whose workers engage in tasks compatible with AI's current capabilities. As these AI-exposed establishments adopt AI, they simultaneously reduce hiring in non-AI positions and change the skill requirements of remaining postings. While visible at the establishment level, the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations and industries is currently too small to be detectable.We thank Bledi Taska for detailed comments and providing access to Burning Glass data; Joshua Angrist, Andreas Mueller, Rob Seamans, and Betsey Stevenson for very useful comments and suggestions; Jose Velarde and Zhe Fredric Kong for expert research assistance; and David Deming and Kadeem Noray for sharing their code and data. Acemoglu and Autor acknowledge support from Accenture LLP, IBM Global Universities, Schmidt Futures, and the Smith Richardson Foundation. Acemoglu

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