Arms imports as an action‐reaction process: An empirical test of six pairs of developing nations

Mintz, Alex

doi:10.1080/03050628608434657

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Studies of arms transfers have focused on foreign policy concerns such as the promotion of regional stability (Sanjian 1999) and foreign policy conflict (Kinsella 1998). Competitive aspects of superpower arms transfer policies during the Cold War (Mintz 1986), and the impact of these arms transfers on regional conflict (Kinsella 1994(Kinsella , 1995, have also been analyzed. However, the relationship between human rights, democracy, and U.S. arms transfers has received little empirical attention.…”

Section: Relevant Empirical Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

Blanton

2005

Int Studies Q

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During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post‐Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as “foreign policy writ large,” this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post‐Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two‐stage model to evaluate the decision‐making process. The first‐stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post‐Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.

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Section: Relevant Empirical Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

Blanton

2005

Int Studies Q

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“…Domestic arms production is one form, and we might even expect to observe states responding in kind to regional competitors' military industrialization efforts. Action-reaction processes have in fact been observed at the level of arms importation (Mintz, 1986;Kinsella, 1994Kinsella, , 1995. Still, this sort of symmetry is not necessarily predicted by realist theory, which has states responding to the military capability of their neighbors, whatever its source.…”

Section: Regional Security Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Arms production in the third tier: An analysis of opportunity and willingness

Kinsella

2000

International Interactions

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“…A key point here is that even in the absence of short-term reaction, cointegration nevertheless implies a responsiveness by one or both sides in the form of policy adjustments that maintain a long-run equilibrium relationship. Models of interstate rivalry that omit an errorcorrection term cannot illuminate this dimension of the competition when it exists~e.g., Mintz, 1986aMintz, , 1986b The relevance of these time-series concepts for the argument in the first half of the article can be summarized as follows. Military-technological change is a stochastic process that is composed of technological advances that have become increasingly frequent over time.…”

Section: Shared Trends In Cold War Arms Transfersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rivalry, Reaction, and Weapons Proliferation: A Time-Series Analysis of Global Arms Transfers

Kinsella

2002

Int Studies Q

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This article analyzes the competitive dynamics in global arms transfers from 1951 to 1995. I discuss the enduring forces behind the proliferation of military capability during the Cold War and other historical periods, and then consider the competitive dynamics characteristic of the superpower rivalry itself. The process of military‐technological advance, along with the dynamics of enduring interstate rivalry, lead us to expect certain patterns in quantitative data representing arms‐transfer levels over time. Concepts in time‐series analysis—cointegration and error correction—are helpful for understanding competitive arms‐transfer policies during the Cold War, and I apply the relevant analytical tools to test for the hypothesized patterns in the empirical data. American and Russian, as well as NATO and Warsaw Pact, arms transfers are examined at three levels of regional aggregation: the Third World as a whole, the Middle East security complex, and the Persian Gulf subcomplex. The evidence shows that arms transfers by the Cold War rivals moved together in patterns consistent with competitive policy making in an environment of military‐technological change, and that one or both sides adjusted their supply policies to correct for deviations from a moving equilibrium. This describes an action‐reaction process, but a loosely coupled one deriving from military‐technological uncertainties, the complexities of regional security dynamics, and the multidimensional character of the Cold War competition.

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Arms imports as an action‐reaction process: An empirical test of six pairs of developing nations

Cited by 19 publications

References 11 publications

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

Arms production in the third tier: An analysis of opportunity and willingness

Rivalry, Reaction, and Weapons Proliferation: A Time-Series Analysis of Global Arms Transfers

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