ARIMA-based forecasting of the dynamics of confirmed Covid-19 cases for selected European countries

Abstract

Research background: On 11 March 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic was identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a global pandemic. The rapid increase in the scale of the epidemic has led to the introduction of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures. Forecast of the Covid-19 prevalence is an essential element in the actions undertaken by authorities.
 Purpose of the article: The article aims to assess the usefulness of the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting the dynamics of Covid-19 incidence at different stages of the epidemic, from the first phase of growth, to the maximum daily incidence, until the phase of the epidemic's extinction.
 Methods: ARIMA(p,d,q) models are used to predict the dynamics of virus distribution in many diseases. Model estimates, forecasts, and the accuracy of forecasts are presented in this paper.
 Findings & Value added: Using the ARIMA(1,2,0) model for forecasting the dynamics of Covid-19 cases in each stage of the epidemic is a way of evaluating the implemented non-pharmaceutical countermeasures on the dynamics of the epidemic.

A review on COVID-19 forecasting models

“…An example of an application of a simple moving average in COVID-19 could be found in[23].8.1.1.2 Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) An autoregressive integrated moving average model is a generalized form of the autoregressive moving average model. As it is well known for forecasting, some researchers have used ARIMA to predict the spread of the new pandemic[31,[55][56][57][58].…”

A Review on COVID-19 Forecasting Models

“…The ARIMA model is a generalized form of autoregressive moving average model. As it is well-known for forecasting, some researchers have used ARIMA to predict the new pandemic (Alzahrani, Aljamaan et al 2020, Kufel and Policy 2020, Moftakhar, Mozhgan et al 2020, Roy, Bhunia et al 2020). (Maleki, Mahmoudi et al 2020) used a time series model based on two-pieces distribution to predict new COVID-19 cases.…”

The COVID-19 pandemic impact upon housing brokers’ workflow and their clients’ attitude: Real estate market in Krakow

“…As of September 22, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 960,000 deaths and more than 31 million confirmed cases all over the world (Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, 2020). The outbreak of COVID-19 has influenced almost all the aspects of human life (Zahra, 2020;Ratten, 2020aRatten, , 2020bLiguori & Winkler, 2020) and has completely changed the economic environment (Kuckertz et al, 2020;Kufel, 2020;Korzeb & Niedziółka, 2020). In particular, as Nicola et al (2020) note, the emergence of coronavirus may be considered in the context of the effect upon primary, secondary, and service sectors.…”