Are We Better-Off? The Benefits and Costs of Australian COVID-19 Lockdown

Pak, Anton; Adegboye, Oyelola A.; McBryde, Emma S.

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.798478

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Throughout the world a plethora of NPIs were implemented with different levels and combinations of social-distancing, face-cover wearing and screening (i.e., asymptomatic testing) programmes. Most NPIs with the exception of mass screening are associated with tremendous explicit (7) and implicit (8) costs while leading to a moderate impact on deaths and hospitalizations (2, 9). Slovakia (10) was the first country to test their entire population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Impact of Mass Screening for SARS-CoV-2 through Self-Testing in Greece

Gilmour

Sapounas

Drakopoulos

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The emergence of COVID-19 stressed country health systems up to the point of triggering compulsory public health interventions to flatten the epidemic curve. Most of the interventions during the first year of the pandemic were non-pharmaceutical and aimed to reduce the contact rate of the people, which reduced the transmission rate of all respiratory pathogens, but had a large social and financial burden. SARS-CoV-2 specific interventions included screening, that is testing of asymptomatic people, which was largely facilitated by the availability of self-testing lateral flow antigen detection devices. The importance of self-testing interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemic is not well-documented. We study as a paradigm-model the self-testing COVID-19 mass screening program that was implemented in Greece, involving large, susceptible populations taking tests routinely and pre-emptively so as to enable early detection of infections. Using a novel compartmental model we quantify the effectiveness of the program in curbing the COVID-19 pandemic. Conservative estimates indicate that the program reduced the reproductive number by 4\%, hospital admissions by 25\% and deaths by 20\%, which translated into approximately 20,000 averted hospitalizations and 2,000 averted deaths between April-December 2021. Self-testing mass screening programs are efficient interventions with minimal social and financial burden, thus they are invaluable tools to be considered in pandemic preparedness.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Impact of Mass Screening for SARS-CoV-2 through Self-Testing in Greece

Gilmour

Sapounas

Drakopoulos

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…In general, these studies have limitations given that no randomized trial has assessed this question and modeling, or observational studies leave substantial uncertainties and are subject to selective reporting and interpretation ( 227 ). A meta-analysis has found very small benefits of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality rates ( 16 ), and cost-benefit analyses find that the costs of lockdowns (including what we outline above) far outweigh any potential benefit that may occur ( 6 , 228 ). Debate and disagreement will likely continue, given that assessments on the relative benefits of lockdown are based largely of weak observational data under very complex circumstances.…”

Section: Rising Inequalitiesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Aggressive measures, rising inequalities, and mass formation during the COVID-19 crisis: An overview and proposed way forward

Schippers

Ioannidis

Joffe

2022

Front. Public Health

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A series of aggressive restrictive measures were adopted around the world in 2020–2022 to attempt to prevent SARS-CoV-2 from spreading. However, it has become increasingly clear the most aggressive (lockdown) response strategies may involve negative side-effects such as a steep increase in poverty, hunger, and inequalities. Several economic, educational, and health repercussions have fallen disproportionately on children, students, young workers, and especially on groups with pre-existing inequalities such as low-income families, ethnic minorities, and women. This has led to a vicious cycle of rising inequalities and health issues. For example, educational and financial security decreased along with rising unemployment and loss of life purpose. Domestic violence surged due to dysfunctional families being forced to spend more time with each other. In the current narrative and scoping review, we describe macro-dynamics that are taking place because of aggressive public health policies and psychological tactics to influence public behavior, such as mass formation and crowd behavior. Coupled with the effect of inequalities, we describe how these factors can interact toward aggravating ripple effects. In light of evidence regarding the health, economic and social costs, that likely far outweigh potential benefits, the authors suggest that, first, where applicable, aggressive lockdown policies should be reversed and their re-adoption in the future should be avoided. If measures are needed, these should be non-disruptive. Second, it is important to assess dispassionately the damage done by aggressive measures and offer ways to alleviate the burden and long-term effects. Third, the structures in place that have led to counterproductive policies should be assessed and ways should be sought to optimize decision-making, such as counteracting groupthink and increasing the level of reflexivity. Finally, a package of scalable positive psychology interventions is suggested to counteract the damage done and improve humanity's prospects.

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“…Mass screening has been shown to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by simulation studies (6), as well as in retrospective studies of programs in Slovakia, Liverpool (United Kingdom), and South Tyrol (Italy) (9)(10)(11). Furthermore, whereas NPIs such as lockdowns are associated with tremendous explicit and implicit negative consequences (12,13), including financial costs, disrupted education, and adverse effects on mental health, mass screening is particularly attractive for its limited negative consequences. These are primarily direct financial costs associated with procuring, distributing, and administering tests, which can reasonably be estimated prior to implementation (14).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the impact of mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 through self-testing in Greece

Gilmour,

Sapounas,

Drakopoulos

et al. 2024

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundScreening programs that pre-emptively and routinely test population groups for disease at a massive scale were first implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in a handful of countries. One of these countries was Greece, which implemented a mass self-testing program during 2021. In contrast to most other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), mass self-testing programs are particularly attractive for their relatively small financial and social burden, and it is therefore important to understand their effectiveness to inform policy makers and public health officials responding to future pandemics. This study aimed to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalizations averted by the program implemented in Greece and evaluate the impact of several operational decisions.MethodsGranular data from the mass self-testing program deployed by the Greek government between April and December 2021 were obtained. The data were used to fit a novel compartmental model that was developed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece in the presence of self-testing. The fitted model provided estimates on the effectiveness of the program in averting deaths and hospitalizations. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of operational decisions, including the scale of the program, targeting of sub-populations, and sensitivity (i.e., true positive rate) of tests.ResultsConservative estimates show that the program reduced the reproduction number by 4%, hospitalizations by 25%, and deaths by 20%, translating into approximately 20,000 averted hospitalizations and 2,000 averted deaths in Greece between April and December 2021.ConclusionMass self-testing programs are efficient NPIs with minimal social and financial burden; therefore, they are invaluable tools to be considered in pandemic preparedness and response.

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Are We Better-Off? The Benefits and Costs of Australian COVID-19 Lockdown

Cited by 5 publications

References 19 publications

On the Impact of Mass Screening for SARS-CoV-2 through Self-Testing in Greece

On the Impact of Mass Screening for SARS-CoV-2 through Self-Testing in Greece

Aggressive measures, rising inequalities, and mass formation during the COVID-19 crisis: An overview and proposed way forward

On the impact of mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 through self-testing in Greece

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