Are transboundary fisheries management arrangements in the Northwest Atlantic and North Pacific seaworthy in a changing ocean?

Koubrak, Olga; VanderZwaag, David

doi:10.5751/es-11835-250442

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Yet, even management plans that take into consideration such strategies might not be fully prepared for the consequences of shifting transboundary stocks (Engler, 2020; Koubrak & VanderZwaag, 2020; Pinsky et al, 2018). For example, species’ shifts within the PNA area will likely also have to deal with stocks expanding to new jurisdictions, an issue that the NEAFC is currently facing regarding Atlantic mackerel (Pinsky et al, 2018; Spijkers & Boonstra, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Game theory predicts that the greater the number of negotiating parties, the harder it is for parties to reach an agreement (Gronbaek et al, 2020). Thus, coordinating the management of shifting transboundary stocks for countries in these regions will be particularly challenging (Gentner, 2016) Most management plans that are not designed or prepared to respond to range and abundance shifts will be less resilient to climate change (Bryndum-Buchholz et al, 2021;Koubrak & VanderZwaag, 2020;Miller et al, 2013;Sumby et al, 2021).…”

Section: Climate Risk Hotspots For Transboundary Fisheries Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Palacios‐Abrantes

Frölicher

Reygondeau

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, fisheries management, shared fisheries, species on the move, time of emergence This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Risk Hotspots For Transboundary Fisheries Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Palacios‐Abrantes

Frölicher

Reygondeau

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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show abstract

“…Even management plans that take into consideration such strategies might not be fully prepared for the consequences of shifting transboundary stocks (Engler, 2020; Koubrak & VanderZwaag, 2020; Pinsky et al, 2018). For example, species’ shifts within the PNA area will likely also have to deal with stocks expanding to new jurisdictions, issue that the NEAFC is currently facing regarding Atlantic mackerel (Pinsky et al, 2018; Spijkers & Boonstra, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing and magnitude of climate driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Palacios‐Abrantes

Frölicher

Reygondeau

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model to a species distribution model, we show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks would have shifted and 78% of the world EEZs will experience at least one shifting stock under a high emission climate change scenario. By the end of this century, 81% of EEZ waters will see at least one shifting stock with a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally, under a high emissions scenario. Importantly, many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for income, food and nutrition security, as well as livelihoods emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts showing early, and sometimes past shifts. Existing fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity in addressing transboundary shifts, and strengthened where necessary to limit conflict over these fish stocks while new agreements are urged to considere this problematic in order to be resilient to global change.

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“…this variable is coded as 1 when a stock is fished by multiple countries and as 0 otherwise). The transboundary control variable is added to the model as the management of transboundary stocks can be contested and more difficult than stocks restricted to a single EEZ for reasons unrelated to management attributes (Koubrak & VanderZwaag, 2020). Random effects control for non‐independence in observations (Bolker, 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which attributes of fishing opportunities are linked to sustainable fishing?

Oostdijk

Carpenter

2022

Fish and Fisheries

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To prevent the overfishing of marine fish populations, governments often limit access through the allocation of fishing opportunities. While some studies have linked particular systems of fishing opportunities to sustainable outcomes (particularly individual transferable quota (ITQ)), it remains unclear, whether it is the use of exclusive property-rights (individual allocation and secure duration), the use of a market for fishing opportunities (tradability), or the quota limits themselves that underlie these positive outcomes. To determine which system attributes lead to sustainable fishing we developed a novel method to systematically classify how fishing opportunities are allocated for 443 global fish stocks from 1990 to 2018 to produce the longest and most comprehensive dataset and longitudinal study of its kind. Our results revealed that quota limits and individual allocation were associated with a reduced probability of overfishing, with the most robust result for quota limits. The leasing of quota was the only attribute associated with a reduced probability of overfished biomass. Whereas some previous studies have emphasized that market-based systems or those with strong property rights (i.e. a long duration) are associated with sustainable fishing, these benefits are small or not significant once proper controls for other system attributes are introduced. These results highlight the importance of considering all attributes of institutional design in the governance of common pool resources.

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Are transboundary fisheries management arrangements in the Northwest Atlantic and North Pacific seaworthy in a changing ocean?

Cited by 12 publications

References 25 publications

Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Timing and magnitude of climate driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Which attributes of fishing opportunities are linked to sustainable fishing?

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