Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

Hatton, Timothy J.; Williamson, Jeffrey G.

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.05.006

Cited by 67 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(23 reference statements)

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“…This result is in line with Clemens (2014) who finds that increases in annual GDP per head of up to US$9,000 increase emigration; see also Faini and Venturini (1993), de Haas (2010), and Westmore (2014). The overall decline in relative migration frequencies (in all scenarios) is mainly driven by an increase in population size, itself driven by fertility constantly above replacement level; thus, our findings are not at odds with studies that predict an increase in absolute migration from sub-Saharan Africa, such as Hatton and Williamson (2011). In fact, immigration from Senegal to France as well as to the EU28 as a whole has been remarkably stable in absolute numbers since 2008 (Eurostat 2016), despite strong population growth; our results are very consistent with this.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis Calibration and Validationcontrasting

confidence: 64%

“…We use an individual-based model rather than a population-based model such as the popular cohort-component model. For an overview of approaches to forecasting migration, see Bijak (2011), as well as other recent contributions from Hatton and Williamson (2011), Azose and Raftery (2013), and Abel and Sander (2014. This individual-based micro perspective enables us to incorporate behavioural mechanisms and social processes that influence demographic behaviour and population change into our model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

et al. 2017

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We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age-and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.Keywords: international migration; life course modelling; Theory of Planned Behaviour; multistate modelling; microsimulation; agent-based modelling IntroductionFor policymakers and researchers alike, it is of paramount interest to be able to predict how people make demographically relevant decisions. In this paper, we present a novel approach to projection by incorporating decision-making and interaction between individuals in a demographic projection model. We use an individual-based model rather than a population-based model such as the popular cohort-component model. For an overview of approaches to forecasting migration, see Bijak (2011), as well as other recent contributions from Hatton and Williamson (2011), Azose and Raftery (2013), and Abel and Sander (2014. This individual-based micro perspective enables us to incorporate behavioural mechanisms and social processes that influence demographic behaviour and population change into our model. We can thus predict the effect of external shocks, such as policy changes, by making the causal mechanism through which shocks alter behaviour explicit. Comparing model predictions with empirical outcomes facilitates the subsequent drawing of conclusions on the plausibility of the assumed behavioural mechanism. In this way, the model can be improved gradually over time, by refining the parameters and functional forms of its main component, in this case the decision-making on international migration.In the model, as in real life, demographically relevant decisions are embedded in the human life course. Choices are motivated by aspirations and preferences in different domains of life, such as work and family, and constrained by available resources (not only financial, but also cognitive and social resources, and time). We take into consideration that people do not have perfect foresight and usually lack the time and cognitive abilities to acquire the full and unbiased information necessary to make a rational choice. Preferences vary over the life course, as do both the availability of and need for resources, because of events or changing conditions (e.g., available social support). As a result, t...

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Section: Sensitivity Analysis Calibration and Validationcontrasting

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

et al. 2017

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“…Drawing on Borjas (1987), Chiswick (2000), Hatton (2005) and Clark et al (2007), the migration equation can be expressed as follows. Assume an individual i with skills s i decides between remaining in source country s and obtaining wage or moving to a receiving country r and earning wage .…”

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confidence: 99%

Migration and the Demographic Shift

Zaiceva

Zimmermann

2016

Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. This chapter connects population aging with international migration. After documenting the trends for both, we review the supply-push and demand-pull determinants of migration, focusing particularly on the role of age and aging. We subsequently discuss the literature concerning the implications of migration in the context of aging for labor markets, health and public budgets including the political economy context. Although immigration is sometimes suggested as a solution for the aging problem, the existing academic literature from different fields is more cautious about its role and potential. While large-scale selective immigration might contribute to alleviating demographic pressures, it is unlikely that immigration will increase to the unrealistically large numbers needed.JEL Classification: F22, F66, J11, J14, J61, O15

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“…A weakness is that current or recent drivers of migration can hardly explain lifetime migration and migrant stock unless the drivers and their effects remain stable over a long time. In a study of emigration to the United States, Clark et al (2004) and Hatton and Williamson (2011) used U.S. census data on migrant stock, too. Hatton and Williamson used a two-step procedure to derive the emigration rate from a source country to the United States.…”

Section: Emigration Rates and Emigration Probabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

2017

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What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.

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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

Cited by 67 publications

References 30 publications

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

Migration and the Demographic Shift

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

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