Are there significant linkages between two series of housing prices, money supply and short-term international capital? – Evidence from China

Su, Chi‐Wei; Yin, Xiao-Cui; Tao, Ran; Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona; Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia

doi:10.1016/j.dsp.2018.08.017

Cited by 10 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Consequently, the government abolished the one-child policy in 2015 to alleviate the gender imbalance which can be more serious. The HP is equivalent to the average selling price of the commercial house divided by sales area (Su et al, 2018). The MR is the rate of registered marriage per 10000 population for each province (Farzanegan and Fereidouni, 2014), obtained from the China Statistics Yearbook available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC).…”

Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The housing market is not fully developed in these third and fourth-tier cities and is relatively moderate in the two regions. The low housing demand makes the investment environment less attractive (Su et al, 2018) and has no effect on MR. Similarly, in these cities the land supply growth is continued with strong investment to residential housing of about 25% of the total fixed investment.…”

Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The causality running from MR to HP has been detected in Henan and Jilin in Central and Northeastern regions, respectively. The reform process is underway by adjusting the industrial structure and macroeconomic policy to exploit the economic potential (Su et al, 2018). Similarly, Jilin has the lowest fertility and highest divorce rate in China.…”

Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Do House Prices and Marriages Move together in China?

Xu¹,

Khan²,

Moldovan³

et al. 2019

ECECSR

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This paper tests the duration model to evaluate the causality relationship between house prices (HP) and marriages (MR) in China. The results find that HP do Granger cause MR in Western regions and vice versa. In the other three regions the HP does not Granger cause the MR except for Beijing and Henan in the Eastern and Central regions respectively. The shortage in the land supply, higher income, and population in the Eastern region results in housing problems and increases the competition for MR. However, relaxed land supply and a low developmental level make real estate less attractive for investors but do not hinder MR in the Western region. Moreover, MR is leading HP in Jilin in the Northeastern region because of the gender imbalance and lowest fertility rate which increases the housing demand for MR. Our results conclude that HP influence MR positively which is contrary to the duration model, stating that rising HP will decrease the MR. The government should balance regional development, the housing market, and social coordination to minimize the rising HP on the MR. As a result, it will prevent the MR from declining and will mitigate the sex-ratio imbalance as well as the housing market.

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Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Empirical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Do House Prices and Marriages Move together in China?

Xu¹,

Khan²,

Moldovan³

et al. 2019

ECECSR

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show abstract

“…In the analysis, HP is equal to the average commercial selling price of a house divided by the sales area (Guo & Chen, 2015;Su et al, 2018). MR is equivalent to the rate of registered marriages per 10000 population for each province (Farzanegan & Fereidouni, 2014).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Do house prices squeeze marriages in China?

Khan

Lü

et al. 2020

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

Self Cite

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This study reviews the threshold effect of house prices (HPs) on marriage (MR) in China by utilizing a panel threshold regression. The findings indicate that HPs have a positive impact on MR when the price is below the threshold value. Homeownership is an extremely important factor in MR in China, and MR without housing is considered incomplete. However, HPs have a negative effect on MR when the price is higher than the threshold value. Unemployment and female education have a negative effect on MR, while GDP per capita has a positive effect. These results are supported by the duration model, which shows that as HPs increase, the rate of MR decreases. The study makes a contribution on the asymmetric impact of high HPs on MR in China in the two regimes. The paper offers insight into the economic outlook on HPs and MR driven by societal and institutional changes, such as privatization and state ownership of enterprises, that have changed marriage behavior. Increasing HPs slow MR and may have a more serious impact on China than on other countries. The government should balance housing supply and demand by enhancing antimonopoly supervision in the private market. The government should establish policy measures to meet housing demand and create incentives to wed, which can relieve competition in marriage markets. Diversified investment, in turn, can control HPs.

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“…Previous studies have primarily observed three types of effects that monetary policies have on home prices. The first type of effects is caused by interest rates (McDonald & Stokes, 2013;Robstad, 2018;Paul, 2020); the second type of effects is caused by monetary liquidity (Congdon, 2005;Gouteron & Szpiro, 2005;Chung, 2006;Su et al, 2018;Ryczkowski, 2019;Wang et al, 2020); and the third type of effects is caused indirectly by credit channels (Gimeno & Martínez-Carrascal, 2010;Park et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Special Effect of Interest Rate Cuts on Housing Prices

Lin

Tsai

2021

Journal of Business Economics and Management

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This study uses theoretical models and empirical research to explain that interest rates affect the structure of housing price formation and correction rather than affect the price alone. In particular, when interest rates are substantially reduced, the correction of housing prices toward fundamentals is absent; in other words, a housing bubble is likely to occur. This study first illustrates a model for explaining home price behavior. Data from the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index between January 1975 and August 2020 are adopted to observe the behavior of home prices. The empirical results show that the correction and bubble behavior of U.S. home prices have exhibited significant structural changes. Variation in money supply fails to explain the structural changes, however, interest rate variation can significantly affect the structural changes. According to the results, when interest rates rise or fall slightly, the correction of home prices toward the equilibrium value is significant. However, when interest rates fall substantially, the bubble behavior of home prices is significant. For governments that adopt low interest rates to revitalize the economy, the results of this study provide special reference values. Governments should provide additional intervention in housing markets when an extremely low interest rate exists.

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Are there significant linkages between two series of housing prices, money supply and short-term international capital? – Evidence from China

Cited by 10 publications

References 21 publications

Do House Prices and Marriages Move together in China?

Do House Prices and Marriages Move together in China?

Do house prices squeeze marriages in China?

The Special Effect of Interest Rate Cuts on Housing Prices

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