Are There Risks with Risk Assessment? A Study of the Predictive Accuracy of the Youth Level of Service-Case Management Inventory with Young Offenders in Scotland

Vaswani, Nina; Merone, Lisa

doi:10.1093/bjsw/bct059

Cited by 21 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Our findings that overrides result in an upward reshuffling of supervisees into higher risk levels, especially for persons convicted of sex offenses, while producing a simultaneous degradation in risk prediction are consistent with other studies focusing on supervision overrides (see Cohen, Pendergast, & VanBenschoten, 2016; Guay & Parent, 2018; McCafferty, 2015; Schmidt et al, 2016; Vaswani & Merone, 2014; Wormith et al, 2015). The study’s principal findings, in alignment with other research, that supervision overrides result in the degradation of a risk tool’s predictive capabilities is particularly important for community correction professionals.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…We ended the data extraction date in mid-2017 because the PCRA’s supervision levels were modified to include a violence trailer at that time (Serin et al, 2016). Regardless, this study sample constitutes one of the largest ever used to examine the presence of overrides among supervisees and the association between overrides and risk prediction (Chappell et al, 2012; Guay & Parent, 2018; McCafferty, 2015; Vaswani & Merone, 2014; Wormith et al, 2012). Table 1 provides a descriptive overview of the overall study population.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

Cohen¹,

Lowenkamp

Bechtel

et al. 2020

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations provided by the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) instrument. This component of the risk classification process is referred to as the supervision override. While the rationale for allowing overrides is that actuarial scores cannot always capture an individual’s unique characteristics, there is relatively limited literature on the actual effects of overrides on an actuarial tool’s predictive efficacies. This study examines overrides in the federal system by assessing the extent to which risk levels are adjusted through overrides as well as the impact of overrides on the PCRA’s risk prediction effectiveness. Findings show that nearly all overrides lead to an upward risk reclassification, that overrides tend to place substantial numbers of persons under federal supervision (especially those convicted of sex offenses) into the highest supervision categories, and that overrides result in a deterioration of the PCRA’s risk prediction capacities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

Cohen¹,

Lowenkamp

Bechtel

et al. 2020

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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“…Since there have been a number of recent studies that have used non-North American samples (Chu et al, 2015;Chu, Lee, Zeng, & Teoh, 2011;Greiger & Hosser, 2007;Shepherd, Luebbers, Ogloff, Fullam, & Dolan, 2014;Takahashi, Mori, & Kroner, 2013;Vaswani & Merone, 2014), separate meta-analyses were conducted for males and females depending on whether they had a North American sample, or a sample from elsewhere in the world.…”

Section: New Conviction or Re-incarcerationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gender and Risk Assessment in Juvenile Offenders: A Meta-Analysis

Pusch

Holtfreter

2017

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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Although young males are still the primary perpetrators of juvenile crime, girls are increasingly coming into contact with the criminal justice system. While girls may have different pathways to crime and risks for recidivism than boys, their risk to reoffend is typically assessed using a gender-neutral tool that is based on social learning theory: a theory originally developed and tested on males. With the appropriateness of using gender-neutral tools to assess female criminality coming into question, a number of researchers have searched for a resolution. To date, mixed findings on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools have not provided any definitive answers. To help assess the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service Inventory, separate meta-analyses were conducted for male and female juvenile offenders using previous studies. The mean effect sizes were compared in order to determine whether the predictive validity is similar for both males and females. With the exception of violent recidivism, results indicate that the YLS/CMI works equally well for male and female offenders. The implications of these findings for theory, research, and correctional policy are discussed.ii

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“…The instrument is composed of six parts, the first of which is used to measure risk and need (similar to the LSI-R) and the others to aid in case planning (Hoge, 2013). Much less research has been published on the YLS/CMI (which is now in a revised form, but retains the section of interest, part I), but the work that has been done suggests that it has acceptable levels of validity using a variety of measures (Bechtel, Lowenkamp, & Latessa, 2007;Olver, Stockdale, & Wormith, 2009;Schmidt, Campbell, & Houlding, 2011;Vaswani & Merone, 2013;Welsh, Schmidt, McKinnon, Chattha, & Meyers, 2008).…”

Section: Risk Assessment and Offender Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

In the eye of the beholder? An examination of the inter-rater reliability of the LSI-R and YLS/CMI in a correctional agency

Rocque

Plummer-Beale

2014

Journal of Criminal Justice

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Are There Risks with Risk Assessment? A Study of the Predictive Accuracy of the Youth Level of Service-Case Management Inventory with Young Offenders in Scotland

Cited by 21 publications

References 24 publications

Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

Gender and Risk Assessment in Juvenile Offenders: A Meta-Analysis

In the eye of the beholder? An examination of the inter-rater reliability of the LSI-R and YLS/CMI in a correctional agency

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