Are There Long-Term Effects of the Vietnam Draft on Political Attitudes or Behavior? Apparently Not

Abstract

The Vietnam draft lottery exposed millions of men to risk of induction at a time when the Vietnam War was becoming increasingly unpopular. We study the long-term effects of draft risk on political attitudes and behaviors of men who were eligible for the draft in 1969–1971. Our 2014–2016 surveys of men who were eligible for the Vietnam draft lotteries reveal no appreciable effect of draft risk across a wide range of political attitudes. These findings are bolstered by analysis of a vast voter registration database, which shows no differences in voting rates or tendency to register with the Democratic or Republican parties. The pattern of weak long-term effects is in line with studies showing that the long-term economic effects of Vietnam draft risk dissipated over time and offers a counterweight to influential observational studies that report long-term persistence in the effects of early experiences on political attitudes.

Civilian public sector employment as a long-run outcome of military conscription

“…We found that draft-eligible birthdates did indeed appear with unusually high frequency among male employees but not among female employees. Our findings dovetail with the notion that exogenously imposed military service increases rates of entering civilian US executive branch employment, thus supporting the hypothesis that wartime mobilization has influenced the contemporary administrative state continually and, for the federal government, reconciling discrepant results in the past literature (15, 16).…”

“…The time period of the data studied here makes them roughly comparable with those of Angrist and Chen (15) and Green et al (16), which both reported the effect of the VSSL on later-life public employment. Given that this time period extends decades beyond the VSSL, estimates from our research design inevitably reflect patterns of retirement and mortality caused by draft-eligible men’s lottery numbers.…”

“…Angrist and Chen (15)—in a study of the late-life, labor market experiences of men eligible for the Vietnam-Era Selective Service Lotteries (VSSL)—discovered that men’s chances of working in the public sector increased with their risk of military induction thanks to having their draft number called. Green et al (16), however, in a study of whether the VSSL shaped draftees’ political attitudes, found—in a separate sample—that the estimated effect of lottery-induced military service on public sector employment was smaller than its SE—i.e., a “null” effect. Unfortunately, the different methods of each study—an instrumental variable analysis (15) and an intent-to-treat analysis (16)—prevent direct comparison of the studies’ discrepant effect estimates.…”

“…Green et al (16), however, in a study of whether the VSSL shaped draftees’ political attitudes, found—in a separate sample—that the estimated effect of lottery-induced military service on public sector employment was smaller than its SE—i.e., a “null” effect. Unfortunately, the different methods of each study—an instrumental variable analysis (15) and an intent-to-treat analysis (16)—prevent direct comparison of the studies’ discrepant effect estimates. Furthermore, both studies investigate a sample; thus, their divergent findings could be attributable merely to sampling error: chance sampling variation could result in datasets that, say, over- or underrepresent study participants from geographical areas with more generous (or less generous) state and local preferential hiring policies.…”

War-Time Military Service Can Affect Partisan Preferences

“…Likewise, the threat of recruitment to military service in the U.S. during the Vietnam war led draft-eligible men to adopt liberal and anti-war positions (Erickson and Stoker 2011). However, more recent studies suggest that these effects did not endure in the long term (Green, Davenport and Hanson 2019).…”