Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?

Kumari, Vineeta; Kumar, Gaurav; Pandey, Dharen Kumar

doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2023.100793

Cited by 89 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 67 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This might be due to the dependence of most European countries on Russian oil and gas exports. This negative impact is confirmed by the research of Umar et al (2022), Ahmed et al (2023), Kumari et al (2023), Yousaf et al (2023), Arce et al (2023), Caldara et al (2022), Raza et al (2024). Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine war adversely impacts other countries, justifying the implementation of various sanctions by some developedcountries, comprising trade and financial limitations against Russia.…”

mentioning

confidence: 81%

Downside risk in Dow Jones equity markets: hedging and portfolio management during COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war

Said,

Ouerfelli

2024

JRF

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.Design/methodology/approachDCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.FindingsThe most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.Originality/valueOur paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 81%

Downside risk in Dow Jones equity markets: hedging and portfolio management during COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war

Said,

Ouerfelli

2024

JRF

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In recent years, several researchers have studied the impact of geopolitical conflicts such as war, border and trade disputes on the performance of stock markets (Boubaker et al ., 2022; Ferrández Serrano and Angosto-Fernández, 2022; Gu et al ., 2021; Hassan et al ., 2022; Hudson and Urquhart, 2014; Kumari et al ., 2022, 2023; Schneider and Troeger, 2006). For example, Kumari et al . (2023) examined the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 on European stock market returns.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, a stable political system also plays a crucial role in controlling inflation and is visible in middle eastern economies (Aisen and Veiga, 2005). Another reason the immediate impact of war on Developed and European economies is comparatively high is their high economic integration and geographical proximity with the conflicting countries (Kumari et al ., 2023; Omar et al ., 2017). A significant and similar effect as in the event month can be observed in post-event month T+1.…”

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, several researchers have studied the impact of geopolitical conflicts such as war, border and trade disputes on the performance of stock markets (Boubaker et al, 2022;Ferr andez Serrano and Angosto-Fern andez, 2022;Gu et al, 2021;Hassan et al, 2022;Hudson and Urquhart, 2014;Kumari et al, 2022Kumari et al, , 2023Schneider and Troeger, 2006). For example, Kumari et al (2023) examined the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 on European stock market returns. Hassan et al (2022) highlighted the varying impacts of the India-China border clashes in May 2020 on sectoral performance in India, using an event study approach.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach

Maurya

Bansal

Mishra

2023

JES

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups.FindingsThe outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide.Originality/valueThe war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.

show abstract

“…This paper aims to empirically study the consequence of the Russia–Ukraine war on the performance of firms in the F&B sector. Most of the literature focused on the different factors related to a country’s economic growth (Zhou et al, 2023 ; Kumari et al, 2023 ; Izzeldin et al, 2023 ; Saini et al, 2023 ; Al-kasasbeh, 2022 ; Ndem et al, 2022 ; Aidonojie et al 2022 ; Alkasasbeh and Al-kasasbeh, 2022 ; Saka and Abere, 2021 ; David, 2022 ; Alawi and Naho, 2022 ). To the best of our knowledge, there are still no empirical studies exploring the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the South Korean F&B sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea

Bhadra,

Gul,

Choi

2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Food, Beverage & Tobacco (F&B) industry is an essential sector in the competitive economy. Procurement of production factors mainly depends on sales forecasting and the supply chain of raw materials. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has jeopardized the global supply chain. As the conflict worsened, the world faced a food crisis, which was already a significant challenge due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how conflict-related disruptions in global food markets might affect the stock return of the F&B industry of South Korea, this study forecasts the stock returns on the KOSDAQ F&B sector. This paper highlights that the conflict resulted in immediate and far-reaching consequences on the global food supply chain and future crop harvesting in South Korea. As numerous algorithms have been widely used in predicting stock market returns, we use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the prediction. Using daily returns from the KOSDAQ F&B industry from January 1999 to October 2022, the study proposes an ARIMA (2,2,3) model to forecast future movements of the stock returns. With an RMSE of 0.012, the prediction performance holds good using the ARIMA model. The results show a negative trend observed in the F&B sector returns for a few months, implying that sector stock returns decline as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more pronounced. This study also suggests that South Korea has massive scope to stabilize the demand for healthy, safe food, give more attention to domestic agribusiness, and make itself a self-sufficient agri-economy.

show abstract

Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?

Cited by 89 publications

References 67 publications

Downside risk in Dow Jones equity markets: hedging and portfolio management during COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war

Downside risk in Dow Jones equity markets: hedging and portfolio management during COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war

Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach

Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About