Are some populations resilient to recessions? Economic fluctuations and mortality during a period of economic decline and recovery in Finland

Abstract

This paper uses individual-level longitudinal data on working-age Finns to examine the health effects of economic fluctuations during a period of economic decline (1989–1996) and recovery (1997–2007) in Finland. We used a nationally representative, longitudinal sample formed by linking population, employment and mortality registers (n = 698,484; 7,719,870 person-years). We implemented a region fixed-effect model that exploits within-regional variations over time in the unemployment rate to identify the effect of economic fluctuations on mortality, controlling for individual employment transitions. Unemployment rates increased from 5.2 % in 1989 to 19.8 % in 1996, declining gradually thereafter and reaching 9.7 % in 2007. Results indicate that these large fluctuations in the economy had no impact on the overall mortality of most working age Finns. The exception was highly educated men, who experienced an increase of 7 % (Rate ratio = 1.07, 95 % confidence interval 1.04, 1.10) for every one-point increase in the regional unemployment rate during the period 1989–1996 due to increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and suicide. This increase, however, was not robust in models that used the employment to population ratio as measure of the economy. Unemployment rates were unrelated to mortality among females, lower educated men, and among any group during economic recovery (1997–2007). For most Finns, we found no consistent evidence of changes in mortality in response to contractions or expansions in the economy. Possible explanations include the weak impact of the recession on wages, as well as the generous unemployment insurance and social benefit system in Finland.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-016-0152-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Unemployment and cause-specific mortality among the Belgian working-age population: The role of social context and gender

“…men and women living without a partner and tenants of dwellings. On the other hand, while some suggest that unemployment has a more detrimental health effect for high-educated men, because of their higher career expectations and the potentially larger losses [8], we observed a reversed gradient. Among the unemployed, low-educated men had higher mortality risks compared with high-educated men, whereas for women, mortality was equally across educational attainment.…”

“…Indeed, many studies have suggested that being unemployed can be harmful in several ways, not only financially and psychosocially, but also healthwise [1,7,10–17]. Unemployment has shown to be associated with both mental and physical ill-health and mortality [7,8,10–12,15–19,20–22]. Yet, there might be a protective effect of contextual economic recession in which mortality rates tend to fall [8,15,16,21,23].…”

“…Unemployment has shown to be associated with both mental and physical ill-health and mortality [7,8,10–12,15–19,20–22]. Yet, there might be a protective effect of contextual economic recession in which mortality rates tend to fall [8,15,16,21,23]. The association is even observed in countries with established social welfare systems, which are set up to protect against the negative effects from unemployment [7,8].…”

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries

“…Any mortality-increasing effects of the crisis were probably also buffered by the extensive social security and financially accessible health care systems still in place in most European countries (9). The latter interpretation finds support in detailed analyses of the lack of impact of previous recessions on health inequalities in the Nordic countries (19).…”

Combined Effect of Marriage and Education on Mortality: A Cross-national Study of Older Japanese and Finnish Men and Women

“…Recent studies in Japan and Finland have shown the vulnerability of men with higher SES against the backdrop of recent economic recessions. 19 , 20 Their vulnerability could be exacerbated by a lack of marital protection. Furthermore, Japanese women with higher education are more likely to be single throughout their life, 21 which could elevate their risk for mortality.…”