Are people excessively pessimistic about the risk of coronavirus infection?

Raude, Jocelyn; Debin, Marion; Souty, Cécile; Guerris, Caroline; Turbelin, Iclement; Falchi, Alessandra; Bonmarin, Isabelle; Paolotti, Daniela; Moreno, Yamir; Obi, Chinelo; Duggan, Jim; Wisnia, Ania; Flahault, Antoine; Blanchon, Thierry; Colizza, Vittoria

doi:10.31234/osf.io/364qj

Cited by 57 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…We can speculate that reframing the emergency within a national dimension can amplify the perceived susceptibility of individuals [ 92 , 93 ] and thus increase the adoption of behavioral changes [ 4 , 94 ]. Indeed, previous studies showed that at the beginning of February 2020, people were overly optimistic regarding the risks associated with the new virus circulating in Asia, and their perception sharply changed after the first cases were confirmed in their countries [ 9 , 95 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A series of surveys conducted in late February provide a glimpse of the possible effects of these approaches. These surveys report that citizens of several European countries, despite the grim news coming from Asia, were overly optimistic about the health emergency, placing their risk of infection at 1% or less [ 9 ]. As in 1918, countries that reacted earlier rather than later were better able to control the virus, with significantly fewer infections [ 10 - 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Gozzi¹,

Tizzani²,

Starnini³

et al. 2020

J Med Internet Res

Self Cite

138

124

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Background The exposure and consumption of information during epidemic outbreaks may alter people’s risk perception and trigger behavioral changes, which can ultimately affect the evolution of the disease. It is thus of utmost importance to map the dissemination of information by mainstream media outlets and the public response to this information. However, our understanding of this exposure-response dynamic during the COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. Objective The goal of this study is to characterize the media coverage and collective internet response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four countries: Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. Methods We collected a heterogeneous data set including 227,768 web-based news articles and 13,448 YouTube videos published by mainstream media outlets, 107,898 user posts and 3,829,309 comments on the social media platform Reddit, and 278,456,892 views of COVID-19–related Wikipedia pages. To analyze the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response, we considered a linear regression model that predicts the public response for each country given the amount of news exposure. We also applied topic modelling to the data set using nonnegative matrix factorization. Results Our results show that public attention, quantified as user activity on Reddit and active searches on Wikipedia pages, is mainly driven by media coverage; meanwhile, this activity declines rapidly while news exposure and COVID-19 incidence remain high. Furthermore, using an unsupervised, dynamic topic modeling approach, we show that while the levels of attention dedicated to different topics by media outlets and internet users are in good accordance, interesting deviations emerge in their temporal patterns. Conclusions Overall, our findings offer an additional key to interpret public perception and response to the current global health emergency and raise questions about the effects of attention saturation on people’s collective awareness and risk perception and thus on their tendencies toward behavioral change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Gozzi¹,

Tizzani²,

Starnini³

et al. 2020

J Med Internet Res

Self Cite

138

124

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This claim is supported by Zettler, Schild, Lilleholt, & Böhm (2020), who reported that the HEXACO personality domain of emotionality (characterized by exaggerated levels of anxiety, fear, and emotional reactivity) was associated with a greater level of acceptance of government-mandated personal restrictions. Further, Kuper-Smith, Doppelhofer, Oganian, Rosenblau, and Korn (2020) found that community members in the USA, UK, and Germany consistently underestimated their likelihood of both becoming infected and transmitting COVID-19 in comparison to estimates about the 'average' member of the public (see also Raude et al, 2020). They also reported negative correlations between self-perceived likelihood of infecting others and engaging in hygiene-related behaviors (e.g., hand washing and social distancing), suggesting that increasing fears about contracting the virus might lead to less risky social behaviors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional fear predicts public health compliance in the COVID-19 pandemic

Harper¹,

Satchell²,

Fido³

et al. 2020

Preprint

205

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In the current context of the global pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), health professionals are working with social scientists to inform government policy on how to slow the spread of the virus. An increasing amount of social scientific research has looked at the role of public message framing, for instance, but few studies have thus far examined the role of individual differences in emotional and personality-based variables in predicting virus-mitigating behaviors. In this study we recruited a large international community sample (N = 324) to complete measures of self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19, fear of the virus, moral foundations, political orientation, and behavior change in response to the pandemic. Consistently, the only predictor of positive behavior change (e.g., social distancing, improved hand hygiene) was fear of COVID-19, with no effect of politically-relevant variables. We discuss these data in relation to the potentially functional nature of fear in global health crises.

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“…This claim is supported by Zettler et al (2020), who reported that the HEXACO personality domain of emotionality (characterized by exaggerated levels of anxiety, fear, and emotional reactivity) was associated with a greater level of acceptance of government-mandated personal restrictions. Further, Kuper-Smith et al (2020) found that community members in the USA, the UK, and Germany consistently underestimated their likelihood of both becoming infected and transmitting COVID-19 in comparison with estimates about the "average" member of the public (see also Raude et al 2020). They also reported negative correlations between self-perceived likelihood of infecting others and engaging in hygiene-related behaviors (e.g., hand washing and social distancing), suggesting that increasing fears about contracting the virus might lead to less risky social behaviors.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Functional Fear Predicts Public Health Compliance in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Harper

Satchell

Fido

et al. 2020

Int J Ment Health Addiction

1,272

122

1,227

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the current context of the global pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), health professionals are working with social scientists to inform government policy on how to slow the spread of the virus. An increasing amount of social scientific research has looked at the role of public message framing, for instance, but few studies have thus far examined the role of individual differences in emotional and personality-based variables in predicting virus-mitigating behaviors. In this study, we recruited a large international community sample (N = 324) to complete measures of self-perceived risk of contracting COVID-19, fear of the virus, moral foundations, political orientation, and behavior change in response to the pandemic. Consistently, the only predictor of positive behavior change (e.g., social distancing, improved hand hygiene) was fear of COVID-19, with no effect of politically relevant variables. We discuss these data in relation to the potentially functional nature of fear in global health crises.

show abstract

Are people excessively pessimistic about the risk of coronavirus infection?

Cited by 57 publications

References 8 publications

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Functional fear predicts public health compliance in the COVID-19 pandemic

Functional Fear Predicts Public Health Compliance in the COVID-19 Pandemic

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