Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise?

Thompson, P. R.; Hamlington, B. D.; Landerer, F. W.; Adhikari, Surendra

doi:10.1002/2016gl070552

Cited by 48 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We use an initial data set of 448 tide gauge records from the Permanent Service of Mean Sea Level (7) for which VLM corrections from either GPS or tide gauge minus altimetry were available (15). The records are corrected for the mean seasonal cycle by fitting an annual and semiannual harmonic to the monthly raw data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast to ref. 15, which considered GMSL rates below 1.4 mm·y −1 to be extremely unlikely, we used observational estimates of VLM and the spatial bias at tide gauges resulting from sea level fingerprints, thus avoiding any assumption about dependencies between different sea level contributions. Because our approach is different from that of ref.…”

Section: (B)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a very recent study, ref. 15 further investigated in Monte Carlo experiments the probability that 15 of the longest tide gauges (showing an average rate of 1.6 mm·y −1 ) can be biased high or low, relative to the global mean, because of the contributions of ocean dynamics, GIA, and present-day ice melt. Assuming independence between the different sources, they suggested a probability of less than 1% that the rates obtained from these 15 tide gauge records are consistent with global mean rates lower than 1.4 mm·y −1 .…”

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confidence: 99%

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Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Dangendorf

Marcos

Wöppelmann

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

310

237

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The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm·y −1 . Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm·y −1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm·y −1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: (B)mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Dangendorf

Marcos

Wöppelmann

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

310

237

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Past observations of sea level change relying on tide gauges are spatially and temporally sparse, difficult to qualitycontrol, and biased to the Northern Hemisphere. They may therefore not be fully representative of GMSL (Thompson et al 2016) until satellite data started to become available in the early 1990s. The model-based contributions, on the other hand, may not fully account for all climate variability, such as multidecadal variations in the ocean, the delayed response of glaciers and ice sheets to externally driven climate change, and imperfections in the applied forcings and/or the model responses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change

et al. 2017

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Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme's Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is compared to observational estimates for the period 1900-2015. Observed and simulated individual contributions to GMSL change (thermal expansion, glacier mass change, ice sheet mass change, landwater storage change) are analyzed and compared to observed GMSL change over the period 1900-2007 using tide gauge reconstructions, and over the period 1993-2015 using satellite altimetry estimates. The model-simulated contributions explain 50% 6 30% (uncertainties 1.65s unless indicated otherwise) of the mean observed change from 1901-20 to 1988-2007. Based on attributable biases between observations and models, a number of corrections are proposed, which result in an improved explanation of 75% 6 38% of the observed change. For the satellite era (from 1993-97 to 2011-15) an improved budget closure of 102% 6 33% is found (105% 6 35% when including the proposed bias corrections). Simulated decadal trends increase over the twentieth century, both in the thermal expansion and the combined mass contributions (glaciers, ice sheets, and landwater storage). The mass components explain the majority of sea level rise over the twentieth century, but the thermal expansion has increasingly contributed to sea level rise, starting from 1910 onward and in 2015 accounting for 46% of the total simulated sea level change.

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“…We have shown how land ice wastage through the last century has caused vertical land motion in the order of several This effect is particularly important in the context of sealevel studies, since several of the longest tide gauge records are at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, where the effect of mass loss of Arctic glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet is large, as also discussed by Thompson et al (2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Brief communication: The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets have made an important contribution to sea-level rise through the last century. Self-attraction and loading effects driven by shrinking ice masses cause a spatially varying redistribution of ocean waters that affects reconstructions of past sea level from sparse observations. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies that they should be properly modelled before interpreting and extrapolating recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.

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Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise?

Cited by 48 publications

References 42 publications

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change

Brief communication: The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion

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