Are Housing Price Cycles Asymmetric? Evidence From the Us States and Metropolitan Areas

André, Christophe; Gupta, Rangan; Mwamba, John Weirstrass Muteba

doi:10.3846/ijspm.2019.6361

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Depending on the adopted procedure, the external image of the cycle, the location of turning points and the duration of phases will differ. In the case of analyses concerning residential cycles, the methods borrowed from analyses of business cycles dominate level cycles (Alqaralleh & Canepa, 2020;André et al, 2019;Bracke, 2013;Girouard et al, 2005), growth cycles (Agnello et al, 2020) and deviation cycles (Akimov et al, 2015;Fan et al, 2019;Gray, 2018;Zelazowski, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In foreign literature, research on housing cycles is conducted at the country level (Bracke, 2013;Chang, 2010Chang, , 2020Igan & Loungani, 2012), for regions (André et al, 2019;Chowdhury & Maclennan, 2014) and at the city level (Akimov et al, 2015;Alqaralleh & Canepa, 2020;Cunningham & Kolet, 2011;Fan et al, 2019;Li et al, 2020). These tests concern the identification of cycles and their characteristics, synchronisation of cycles or duration dependence.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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Using a unique dataset of 4,5 million offers, the housing cycles in 18 Polish provincial capitals were identified between 2000 and 2020 before and after the financial crisis. Differences in the course of the cycles depending on spatial diversity are presented, as well as differences in the strength of decreases and increases in individual phases. The examined housing markets in Poland have experienced significant variability in the extent of their cycles. One complete cycle was found in each of the analysed cities. Its average duration was approximately 12 years. In this cycle, residential prices (in real terms) increased by 88% on average, in the upward phase by 158%, while in the downward phase, they decreased by 27% in the cities under study. A correlation was found that implies that the higher the price rises in the upward period, the higher the price correction ensues in the cycle’s downward phase. Moreover, the similarity in fluctuations was present in the metropolitan markets in local housing markets, especially before the financial crisis. Apartment prices continued to grow by 2.9% on average in the real term during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Trojanek

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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“…Yilanci (2012) used the Triples tests to examine the asymmetric behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates for Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania. André et al (2019) investigated asymmetry in US housing price cycles at the state and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The missing asymmetry in the Polish house price cycle: an analysis of the behaviour of house prices in 17 major cities

Brzezicka

Łaszek

Olszewski

et al. 2021

J Hous and the Built Environ

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This paper investigates the house price cycle in 17 major cities in Poland, analysing separately prices of newly constructed housing and prices in the existing stock. We apply the Andre, Gupta and Mwamba (2019) framework and test the deepness and steepness of the cycles. Deepness concerns the relative magnitude of peaks and downturns, while steepness determines, how fast peaks or downturns are reached. When at least one of those measures is not symmetric, there is asymmetry in the cycle. We apply the triples test and the entropy test and find little evidence for asymmetry, mostly only in small cities. This seems to be intriguing, because usually there are asymmetries, for example slow price increases end in sudden drops. The explanation for the smooth cycle in the Polish housing market are a still not satisfied demand for housing and continuously growing wages. Banks issued mortgages only to the more affluent people, which were able to pay back the mortgage. Additionally, two housing subsidy schemes helped to keep house prices stable, when the situation in the global economy worsened, which might have led to price drops.

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“…The information asymmetry in the real estate market can be defined as the difference in the level of information, that is, as the discrepancy of information on immovable property, between the seller and the buyer [8,9]. That difference in the level of information can, on one hand, stem from the lack of liquidity in the market, and on the other hand also from the scarcity of knowledge of the dwelling's physical characteristics and quality [5,10]. Hence, there is an asymmetry in the real estate market that derives from the fact that the market is not efficient and perfect [8,9].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of the Importance of Determining Factors in the Choice and Sale of Apartments

Santos

Tavares

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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The motivation to compare the importance that buyers and sellers give to the diverse characteristics of apartments is its pertinency to grasping the housing market. The objective of this article is to compare the determining factors in the choice and sale of apartments among the potential buyers and sellers. During a sale, the realtors exhibit the dwellings’ positive characteristics, the so-called amenities. The homebuyers must analyse the deal in a rational and well-weighed way, striving to know its characteristics to reduce the information asymmetry. The study focuses on two distinct samples, with the common goal of transacting housing. One of the samples is composed of individuals who are looking for apartments, and the other one of individuals who are selling apartments, both being collected in mainland Portugal. It was verified that there are statistically significant differences between buyers and sellers. Buyers give more importance to certain rooms and the inexistence of negative externalities near their future residence. Sellers emphasise positive externalities and parking spots. This study is expected to contribute to the increase in scientific knowledge on the housing market and to the decrease of the information asymmetry between sellers and buyers. Knowing the importance that buyers and sellers give to the main different factors in the Portuguese real estate market constitutes an advancement of knowledge in this area.

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Are Housing Price Cycles Asymmetric? Evidence From the Us States and Metropolitan Areas

Cited by 10 publications

References 51 publications

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

Housing Price Cycles in Poland – The Case of 18 Provincial Capital Cities in 2000–2020

The missing asymmetry in the Polish house price cycle: an analysis of the behaviour of house prices in 17 major cities

Comparative Analysis of the Importance of Determining Factors in the Choice and Sale of Apartments

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