Are goals scored just before halftime worth more? An old soccer wisdom statistically tested

Abstract

There is an old soccer wisdom that a goal scored just before halftime has greater value than other goals. Many dismiss this old wisdom as just another myth waiting to be busted. To test which is right we have analysed the final score difference through linear regression and outcome (win, draw, loss) through logistic regression. We use games from many leagues, control for the halftime score, comparing games in which a goal was scored after 1 minute remained of regulation time with games in which it was scored before the 44 th minute. Our main finding is that the home team scoring just before halftime influence these outcomes to its advantage, compared with scoring earlier with the same halftime score. We conclude that a goal scored just before halftime has greater value than other goals provided it is scored by the home team.

Proposal of a predictive model for the attack in women’s football depending on the part of the match

“…Therefore, the objective of this study was to continue deepening the knowledge of women's football. It has been shown that in men's soccer the parts of the match (first half or second half) modify the behavior of some conducts (Greve, Nesbø, Rudi, & Salikhov, 2020). Knowing what criteria or variables are modulating this behaviour in women's soccer can help optimize not only training, but also performance during competition and subsequent success during it.…”