Are Estimates of Early Education Programs Too Pessimistic? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment that Causally Measures Neighbor Effects

Abstract

Are estimates of early education programs too pessimistic? Evidence from a large-scale field experiment that causally measures neighbor effects IFN Working Paper, No. 1293

Annual Research Review: Universal and targeted strategies for assigning interventions to achieve population impact

“…List, Momeni, and Zenou () found that ignoring spillover effects may dramatically reduce estimates of the actual magnitude of targeted preschool education interventions on population impact. The possibility of spillover effects suggests that estimating the population impact of a targeted intervention requires measurement and analysis of impact on the entire population, including those who are not targeted for intervention.…”

“…In such a pernicious case, a 'rigorous' individual-level trial might find that random assignment to arrest leads to initial positive impact on lowering the drug dealer's sales, whereas a population-level analysis would show adverse effects on population drug use. List, Momeni, and Zenou (2019) found that ignoring spillover effects may dramatically reduce estimates of the actual magnitude of targeted preschool education interventions on population impact. The possibility of spillover effects suggests that estimating the population impact of a targeted intervention requires measurement and analysis of impact on the entire population, including those who are not targeted for intervention.…”

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“…Of course, the effect could run in the opposite direction. For example, List et al (2019) provide such an example in their measurement of the effects of a pre-K intervention in Chicago: control group children gain more than 0.5 standard deviations in cognitive test scores based on proximity to treated neighbors. This implies at scale the program may be much more effective than the original research suggests.…”

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“…Therefore, programs with greater community coalition functions, communication to stakeholders, and sustainability are more likely to still be in place over two or more years beyond their original funding (Cooper, Bumbarger, and Moore 2015). 87 Dramatic evidence of such spillovers comes from List, Momeni, and Zenou (2019a), who examine a randomized field experiment among 3-5 year olds in Chicago described in List (2015, 2017). They find that each additional treated child residing within a three kilometer radius of a control child's home increases that child's cognitive score by 0.0033 to 0.0042 standard deviations.…”

“…Dramatic evidence of such spillovers comes from List, Momeni, and Zenou (), who examine a randomized field experiment among 3–5 year olds in Chicago described in Fryer, Levitt, and List (, ). They find that each additional treated child residing within a three kilometer radius of a control child's home increases that child's cognitive score by 0.0033 to 0.0042 standard deviations.…”