Are Emerging Markets Resilient to Global Financial Shocks? Evidence from Developing Country Banking Sector

Abstract

Abstract-Adverse effects of vulnerability in the financial sector have been seen, yet again, during the financial crisis of 2008 that turned into a domino effect on the international financial markets spreading across the developed world. The misfortune seen by the developed countries spread its wings into all corners of the world, but there seems to be a misunderstanding of the threat arising of such an event in the regulators of some developing countries. Pakistan is one such country. The regime at the time maintained that the country had been insulated from the adverse effects of the crisis on the financial sector. More emphasis was placed on the macroeconomic imbalances due to global rise in commodity and oil prices. The present study aims to show whether or not the financial crisis impacted the performance efficiency of the Pakistani banking sector and whether the effects were short lived or prolonged. This has been achieved using a unique variable selection methodology in data envelopment analysis using the Malmquist index approach which, to the author's best knowledge, has never been used for the purpose of a similar analysis. The results prove that the performance efficiency of the banking sector was indeed effected during the crisis years but were restored to pre-crisis levels soon after. This goes to show that even though the regulators were partially correct in terms of the timeframe effects of the crisis, yet there was a strong impact on the efficiencies that proves that financial sector was indeed impacted and also, if left unchecked, can have dire consequences if any such situation does arise in the future. The conclusion of the study suggests further work needs to be done on the channels of transmission of the crisis on Pakistan.