Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion

Abstract

Protests and democratic transitions tend to spread cross-nationally. Is this true of all political events? We argue that the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of massparticipation events are unlikely to support the spread of elite-led violence, particularly coups. Further, past findings of coup contagion employed empirical techniques unable to distinguish clustering, common shocks, and actual diffusion. To investigate which events diffuse and where, we combine modern spatial dependence models with extreme bounds analysis (EBA). EBA allows for numerous modeling alternatives, including diffusion timing and the controls, and calculates the distribution of estimates across all combinations of these choices. We also examine various diffusion pathways, such as contagion among trade partners. Results from nearly 1.2 million models clearly undercut coup contagion. In comparison, we confirm that more mass-driven political events robustly spread cross-nationally. Our findings contribute to studies of political conflict and contagion, while introducing EBA as an effective tool for diffusion scholars.

Regional diffusion of military regimes in sub‐Saharan Africa

“…More recently Pérez‐Linàn and Polga‐Hecimovich () have analyzed the patterns of regional diffusion of military coups in Latin America. Contrariwise, Miller, Joseph, and Ohl () by means of an Extreme Bounds Analysis analysis that a spatial dependence of military coups cannot be envisioned. In brief, in the presence of a spatial correlation of military coups, the same pattern could be envisioned for military regimes.…”

Social movements and international relations: a relational framework

“…For example, discussions of the adoption of non-violent strategies by rebel movements have considered how these may elicit more sympathetic responses from the international community, are more appealing to the mass public, and are less threatening to incumbent elites (Stephan and Chenoweth, 2008: 12-13). There has also been renewed interest in the socio-heuristic mechanisms mediating the diffusion of norm-promoting campaigns and protest cycles, pointing to complex chains linking stimulus, medium, and social agents, and to the role of 'firewalls' and conductors deterring or enabling the circulation of information across territorial boundaries and scalar levels (Gunitsky, 2014;Miller et al, 2018;Solingen, 2012). The framework set out here is able to encompass all these aspects.…”

Факторы Вероятности Трансграничного Распространения Внутригосударственных Вооруженных Конфликтов

“…P. 41-58 Эти положения подтверждаются и результатами других исследований, согласно которым политические требования по вопросам национального самоопределения, лежащие в основе сепаратистских конфликтов, действительно склонны к региональному распространению [Cunningham, Sawyer 2014], а конфликты, вызванные политическим исключением этнических групп, чаще подвержены трансграничному "заражению", чем конфликты, вызванные иными противоречиями [Metternich, Minhas, Ward 2015: 13]. В то же время насильственные государственные перевороты, обусловленные действиями элиты, в отличие от ненасильственных массовых протестных движений, не столь "заразны" в международном масштабе [Miller, Joseph, Ohl 2016].…”