Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Abstract

[1] The Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) has experienced a remarkable agricultural extensification since the mid-1800s. Hydroclimatological monitoring in the 20th century also reveals positive annual precipitation and runoff trends in the UMRB. While several studies have proposed land use/land cover (LULC) change as the primary cause of runoff increase, little is known about the dominant controls of hydrologic change in the UMRB. We used a macroscale hydrology model to assess the hydrologic implications of climate and LULC changes between 1918 and 2007. Modeling results, corroborated with hydroclimatologic data analysis, emphasized climate change as the dominant driver of runoff change in the UMRB. At local scales, modeled annual runoff decreased (increased) by up to 9% (5%) where grasslands (forests) were replaced by croplands. Artificial field drainage amplified annual runoff by as much as 13%. These findings are critical for water and nitrogen management in the UMRB under change. Citation: Frans, C., E. Istanbulluoglu, V. Mishra, F. Munoz-Arriola and D. P. Lettenmaier (2013), Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River

Evaluation of Freshwater Provisioning for Different Ecosystem Services in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: Current Status and Drivers

“…The average streamflow at the outlet station (#05587450) of UMRB for the period assessed in this study (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013) slightly increased from 3800.2 m 3 /s to 4041.3 m 3 /s. This is consistent with several studies that have shown an increasing trend in the annual streamflow in the UMRB since the 1940s [14,15,40,41]. However, freshwater provisioning is not necessarily improved with the increased streamflow.…”

“…The river water is primarily used for drinking purposes and industrial applications [21][22][23]. Despite its ecological significance, the conservation status and the ecological integrity of UMRB have been heavily impacted due to various anthropogenic activities, including land use changes to support extensive agricultural production, and hydrologic modification of rivers for navigation and flood control [14,18,19]. …”

“…Few studies have even been done to evaluate factors influencing flow availability and water quality in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). For example, Frans et al [14] and Schilling et al [15] assessed the streamflow implications of climate and land use/land cover changes in the UMRB using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and statistical analysis. Demissie et al [16] and Wu et al [17] used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of biofuel production on regional water resource and water quality in the UMRB.…”

“…The UMRB provides an interesting case study as it has been affected by various anthropogenic activities, including sustained and intensive row crop production. Extensive conversion of the historic prairie and forest landscape to agriculture and the alteration of the rivers for navigation and flood control have adversely impacted the ecological integrity and ecosystem structures in the basin [14,18,19].…”

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

“…The domain includes the Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio River basins ( mostly rainfed over the Upper Mississippi, Ohio and Northern Missouri river basins. Natural flow has been shown, at least over the Upper Mississippi river basin (Frans et al, 2013;Mishra et al, 2010), to be more sensitive to climate change than to land use change. However, this region represents many crosscutting issues on climate, energy, land use, and water, including water quality.…”