Are Chinese Residents Willing to Recycle Express Packaging Waste? Evidence from a Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model

Abstract

While enriching people’s lives, the rapid development of online shopping has posed a severe challenge to the environment. Questionnaires focusing on the intention to recycle packaging waste are designed. These questionnaires contain first-level variables such as recycling behavior attitude, recycling behavior cognition, situational factors, historical recycling behavior, and recycling behavior intention. With the collected questionnaire data, a regression analysis is first conducted on the selection of variables and the effect of variable prediction. After ensuring the validity of the variables, 15 second-level variables are extracted into eight principal components using principal component analysis. These components serve as input to a Bayesian regularized neural network. Subsequently, a three-layer (8-15-1) neural network model is constructed; the trained neural network model achieves a high degree of fit between the predicted and measured values of the test set, thus further proving the rationality of the selected variables and the neural network model. Finally, this study uses the connection weights matrix of the neural network model and the Garson formula to analyze in depth the specific impact of each second-level variable on the intention to recycle packaging waste. Note that given the particularity of packaging waste recycling behavior, the impact on social norms, recycling behavior knowledge, values, and publicity on behavioral intentions in second-level variables is different from that obtained in similar previous studies.

Internal Motivations, External Contexts, and Sustainable Consumption Behavior in China—Based on the TPB-ABC Integration Model

“…Wang et al [33] explored the positive effects of policy instruments, as external contexts, on attitudes and environmental behavior by analyzing the results of a questionnaire survey of 1145 residents in Shanghai. Integrating TPB and ABC theories, Feng and Hua [34] demonstrated that internal motivations and external contexts are essential variables in predicting recycling behavior.…”

Understanding the Gap between Environmental Intention and Pro-Environmental Behavior towards the Waste Sorting and Management Policy of China

“…Further, Wan et al [ 28 ] collected survey responses from 198 Hong Kong residents, verifying that perceived policy effectiveness has a significant positive impact on behavioral intentions and contributes 19.39% to explaining recycling intentions. More recently, according to the calculation results of the Garson formula, perceived policy effectiveness as a situational factor has a higher sensitivity to intentions [ 31 ]. This study thus proposes the following hypotheses:…”

Linking Perceived Policy Effectiveness and Proenvironmental Behavior: The Influence of Attitude, Implementation Intention, and Knowledge

“…According to ABC theory, factors affecting behavior include attitude factors (e.g., norms, beliefs, values), situational factors (e.g., interpersonal influences, social expectations, advertising, government regulations, economic incentives, and costs), personal abilities (e.g., knowledge, specific actions, time allowance, money, social status, social–demographic variables), and habits or procedures [ 22 ]. A behavior occurs when the cumulative effect of external conditions and attitudes is positive [ 23 ]. Ertz, Karakas, and Sarigöllü [ 24 ] proposed that ABC theory’s attempt at perceived situational factors is a valuable exploration because it suggests that researchers examine subjectively perceived situational factors.…”

“…Ertz, Karakas, and Sarigöllü [ 24 ] proposed that ABC theory’s attempt at perceived situational factors is a valuable exploration because it suggests that researchers examine subjectively perceived situational factors. Empirically, ABC theory has been applied in recent research on waste separation and recycling [ 23 ], consumer purchase behavior [ 25 ], and energy consumption [ 26 ]. Therefore, based on the ABC theory, this study added perceived policy effectiveness as an external environmental factor and knowledge as a personal ability factor.…”