Are Ballot Initiative Outcomes Influenced by the Campaigns of Independent Groups? A Precinct-Randomized Field Experiment

Rogers, Todd; Middleton, Joel A.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2188615

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…There is also evidence that spending on campaign ads can influence voter behavior (e.g., see de Figueiredo, Chang, and Kousser. 2011;Rogers and Middleton, 2015). 3 There are some concerns that direct democracy may come at some cost to minority rights, but the magnitude of these costs has been disputed in the empirical literature (see Gamble 1997;Hajnal et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct Democracy and Administrative Disruption

Kogan

Lavertu

Peskowitz

2017

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Direct democracy is often touted as a means of reining in the administrative state, but it could also hinder the performance of public organizations. In particular, we argue that bargaining dynamics between voters and government officials can lead to costly administrative disruptions. We explore this issue by estimating the impact of Ohio tax referenda on school district administration using a regression discontinuity approach. The results suggest that administrators in districts where referenda failed sought to insulate core functions from revenue declines. Nonetheless, referendum failure (as opposed to passage) led to lower instructional spending, teacher attrition, and lower student achievement growth. Spending and performance generally rebounded within a few years, however, as districts eventually secured approval for a subsequent tax proposal. These results illustrate how involving citizens in decision-making can entail short-term transaction costs in the form of decreased administrative performance, which in this case may have had lasting achievement effects for students attending school in the wake of a referendum failure.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct Democracy and Administrative Disruption

Kogan

Lavertu

Peskowitz

2017

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Finally, it is important to note that the potential benefits of moderation must be weighed carefully against potential cost of greater direct democracy, including the influence of interest groups on voter attitudes (e.g., de Figueiredo and Kousser ; Rogers and Middleton ), the risk of voters making uninformed decisions with momentous long‐term policy implications, and the impact on the rights of disadvantaged minority groups. Although this study does not resolve the normative debate about the merits of direct democracy institutions, it does highlight the importance of considering their indirect effects on the legislative process, which might extend beyond Election Day and shape many more substantive outcomes than the issues at stake in any given initiative or referendum.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, direct democracy is not wholly divorced from politics. Recent studies show, for example, that campaign advertising may sway voters in ballot contests (de Figueiredo and Kousser ; Rogers and Middleton ). The limited menu of options available in a simple up or down vote—voters only get to choose between a discrete policy proposal and the status quo (Romer and Rosenthal )—also limit the precision with which ballot measures pin down voter preferences.…”

Section: The Gun Behind the Doormentioning

confidence: 99%

When Voters Pull the Trigger: Can Direct Democracy Restrain Legislative Excesses?

Kogan

2016

Legislative Studies Qtrly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Direct democracy is sometimes described as a “gun behind the door,” but how do legislators react when voters pull the trigger? Leveraging the high‐profile referendum defeat of a controversial law passed by the Ohio legislature, I examine how legislators respond to voter disaffection. Using interest groups to “bridge” votes before and after the election, I show that the measure's defeat induced moderation on the part of the Republican legislative majority, while leaving the behavior of opposition Democrats largely unchanged. The results suggest that direct democracy has the potential to restrain legislative excesses and alleviate polarization in state legislatures.

show abstract

“…We are not aware of any experimental study that examines the effects of information about contributions to initiative campaigns. Most existing studies of initiative campaigns focus on the effects of spending on the outcomes of initiative elections (e.g., vote shares, whether initiatives pass or fail; see de Figueiredo, Ji, and Kousser 2011;Rogers and Middleton 2015). Whether and when information about donors' efforts in these campaigns will change individual citizens' opinions remain open questions.…”

Section: Can Donor Information Promote Informed Decision Making About Initiatives?mentioning

confidence: 99%

TRENDS: Following the Money? How Donor Information Affects Public Opinion about Initiatives

Boudreau

MacKenzie

2021

Political Research Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Citizens are typically uninformed about politics and know little about issues at stake in direct democracy elections. Government efforts to inform electorates include requiring donors to initiative campaigns to report their activities and then circulating such donor information to citizens. What effects does donor information have on citizens’ opinions? We conduct a survey experiment where respondents express opinions about initiatives in a real-world election. We manipulate whether they receive donor information, party cues, policy information from a nonpartisan expert, or no additional information. We find that donor information influences citizens’ opinions in the aggregate, with effects comparable to those of party cues and policy information. However, donor information has negligible effects on uninformed citizens, who have difficulty inferring donors’ policy interests and connecting them to their own. These results underscore the potential benefits of efforts to inform electorates via disclosure laws and highlight disparities in their effectiveness for informed and uninformed citizens.

show abstract

Are Ballot Initiative Outcomes Influenced by the Campaigns of Independent Groups? A Precinct-Randomized Field Experiment

Cited by 7 publications

References 27 publications

Direct Democracy and Administrative Disruption

Direct Democracy and Administrative Disruption

When Voters Pull the Trigger: Can Direct Democracy Restrain Legislative Excesses?

TRENDS: Following the Money? How Donor Information Affects Public Opinion about Initiatives

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About