Are avocados toast? A framework to analyze decision-making for emerging epidemics, applied to laurel wilt

Etherton, Berea A.; Choudhury, Robin A.; Alcalá-Briseño, Ricardo I.; Xing, Yao‐Wu; Sulá, A.I. Plex; Carrillo, Daniel; Wasielewski, J.; Stelinski, Lukasz L.; Grogan, K.A.; Ballen, Fredy H.; Blare, T.; Crane, Jonathan H.; Garrett, Karen A.

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2023.103615

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The cropland connectivity analysis may also be improved as crop density maps improve in quality. Cropland connectivity analyses can also be a first step for scenario analyses for regional pest and disease management, by providing an estimate of the potential epidemic or invasion network for simulation experiments (Etherton et al, 2023; Garrett, 2021; Wiebe et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogen and pest risks to vegetatively propagated crops in humanitarian contexts: geographic priorities for Cameroon and Ethiopia

Mouafo-Tchinda,

Etherton,

Sulá

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Cameroon and Ethiopia face complex humanitarian crises that disrupt the production of key food security crops like banana and plantain, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato. These vegetatively propagated crops are prone to the buildup of pests and diseases causing seed degeneration. In this study, we address seed degeneration in the context of natural and human-driven crises, to provide insights that can guide the decisions of humanitarian groups to reduce seed degeneration. We identified locations in Cameroon and Ethiopia that are likely to be particularly important for pathogen and pest spread in cropland network analyses. We analyzed cropland networks in each country to develop a map of locations that are candidate priorities for disease and pest management and surveillance. For example, locations in central and western Oromia, Ethiopia, are likely important for potato pathogen and pest spread given the locations' roles in the cropland network. Next, we used expert knowledge elicitation to characterize crop health risk in these systems. For example, experts reported with high consensus that there are formal and informal imports of cassava from Gabon to Cameroon, which pose a risk to cassava production in Cameroon through seedborne pathogens. These results can inform regional and national surveillance and management strategies and provide a baseline for more in-depth studies in Cameroon and Ethiopia. The results can also inform decision-making in the humanitarian sector, for designing on-the-ground actions to avoid unintentional spread of pathogens and pests during agricultural recovery interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogen and pest risks to vegetatively propagated crops in humanitarian contexts: geographic priorities for Cameroon and Ethiopia

Mouafo-Tchinda,

Etherton,

Sulá

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The code for these analyses will be available in GitHub upon publication. Key aspects of the analyses are being incorporated as part of the R2M toolbox (www.garrettlab.com/r2m), which addresses rapid risk assessment to support mitigation of plant pathogens and pests (Andersen et al, 2019; Andersen Onofre et al, 2021; Buddenhagen et al, 2017; Buddenhagen et al, 2022; Etherton et al, 2023; Garrett, 2021; Margosian et al, 2009; Nduwimana et al, 2022; Xing et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision support for managing an invasive pathogen through efficient clean seed systems: Cassava mosaic disease in Southeast Asia

Andersen Onofre,

Delaquis,

Newby

et al. 2024

Preprint

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CONTEXT: Effective seed systems must both distribute high-performing varieties efficiently and slow or stop the spread of pathogens and pests. Epidemics increasingly threaten crops around the world, endangering the incomes and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Responding to these food and economic security challenges requires stakeholders to act quickly and decisively during the early stages of invasions, typically with very limited resources. The recent introduction of cassava mosaic virus into southeast Asia threatens cassava production in the region. OBJECTIVES: Our goal in this study is to provide a decision-support framework for efficient management of healthy seed systems, applied to cassava mosaic disease. The specific objectives are to (1) evaluate disease risk in disease-free parts of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam by integrating disease occurrence, climate, topology, and land use, using machine learning; (2) incorporate this predicted environmental risk with seed exchange survey data and whitefly spread in the landscape to model epidemic spread in a network meta-population model; and (3) use scenario analysis to identify candidate regions to be prioritized in seed system management. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The analyses allow stakeholders to evaluate strategy options for allocating their resources in the field, guiding the implementation of seed system programs and responses. Fixed rather than adaptive deployment of clean seed produced more favorable outcomes in this model, as did prioritization of a higher number of districts through the deployment of smaller volumes of clean seed. SIGNIFICANCE: The decision-support framework presented here can be applied widely to seed systems challenged by the dual goals of distributing seed efficiently and reducing disease risk. Data-driven approaches support evidence-based identification of optimized surveillance and mitigation areas in an iterative fashion, providing guidance early in an epidemic, and revising them as data accrue over time.

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“…Cropland connectivity analysis functions are available in the geohabnet R package ( cran.r- project.org/package=geohabnet ). This analysis and others are part of the open-source R2M toolbox for rapid risk assessment to support mitigation of pathogens and pests (www.garrettlab.com/r2m), with example applications including Andersen et al (2019), Andersen Onofre et al (2021a), Buddenhagen et al (2017), Etherton et al (2023), and Nduwimana et al (2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Food systems and food security are threatened by the spread of pathogens and pests, where effective stakeholder interactions and disease interventions in seed systems are crucial for managing disease outbreaks (Andrade-Piedra et al, 2022;Etherton et al, 2023;Ristaino et al, 2021;Thiele and Friedmann, 2020). Potato is a staple crop in many countries, including in sub-Saharan Africa, where it is currently threatened by a range of pests and pathogens (Kennedy et al, 2019;Petsakos et al, 2019;Tafesse et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Translating Ethiopian potato seed networks: identifying strategic intervention points for managing bacterial wilt and other diseases

Etherton,

Plex Sulá,

Mouafo-Tchinda

et al. 2024

Preprint

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ContextInformal seed trade can exacerbate crop disease epidemics. Potato production across Ethiopia is threatened by the spread of seedborne pests and pathogens, particularly by bacterial wilt, caused by theRalstonia solanacearumSpecies Complex (RSSC). The RSSC is commonly dispersed through informal trade of seed potato, with the potential to move long distances across Ethiopia and among trading countries. Efficient disease testing programs and formal seed systems can reduce the risk of disease expansion in a country’s potato cropping system.ObjectiveIn this study, we characterized networks of potato value chain actors. We also identified candidate locations for disease surveillance and management interventions for improved seed systems, and locations at high risk for bacterial wilt establishment. We propose strategies to reduce the spread of bacterial wilt via infected seed.MethodsWe surveyed seed potato stakeholders to characterize interaction networks of potato value chain actors with a special focus on stakeholders engaged in seed potato quality assurance. We collected data regarding Ethiopia’s potato seed systems and analyzed the risk of spread of RSSC and other pathogens across the country through expert knowledge elicitation. Network metrics were used to characterize the informal seed trade system across Ethiopia, simulating pathogen spread across a network through scenario analyses. We characterized potato exports and imports to identify the risk of bacterial wilt movement through Ethiopia’s formal trading partners and neighboring countries where bacterial wilt has not yet been reported.ResultsWare potato farmers and traders were reported to have weak communication with other stakeholders in the potato value chain. In network analyses and simulated epidemics, locations in Agew Awi, Gamo, Gofa, Kembata and Tembaro zones were identified as candidate priorities for national surveillance of pathogen invasion and expansion through management interventions and formal seed system development. Ethiopia has formal trade with Sudan, Southern Sudan, Russia, and other countries where bacterial wilt has not been reported. Ethiopia may be at risk of reintroduction of the RSSC from countries where it is present, like Kenya and India.SignificanceImproving seed systems to manageR. solanacearumand other seedborne pathogens is important for supporting food security and the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Implementing surveillance systems and management programs in locations like those identified in Agew Awi, Gamo, Gofa, Kembata, and Tembaro zones, and improving the communication between ware potato traders and other stakeholders, can help to strengthen informal trade of seed potato and mitigate bacterial wilt spread in infected seed.

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Are avocados toast? A framework to analyze decision-making for emerging epidemics, applied to laurel wilt

Cited by 6 publications

References 62 publications

Pathogen and pest risks to vegetatively propagated crops in humanitarian contexts: geographic priorities for Cameroon and Ethiopia

Pathogen and pest risks to vegetatively propagated crops in humanitarian contexts: geographic priorities for Cameroon and Ethiopia

Decision support for managing an invasive pathogen through efficient clean seed systems: Cassava mosaic disease in Southeast Asia

Translating Ethiopian potato seed networks: identifying strategic intervention points for managing bacterial wilt and other diseases

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