Are Any Growth Theories Robust?

Durlauf, Steven N.; Kourtellos, Andros; Tan, Chih Ming

doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02123.x

Cited by 239 publications

(166 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Durlauf et al (2007) introduced an instrument model selection procedure based on evaluating coefficient estimates according to t -statistics, but warned of the tenuous nature of the underlying statistical theory. The most comprehensive approach to addressing endogeneity in growth regressions has previously been proposed by Durlauf et al (2008), who built on Tsangarides (2004). The authors introduced a model averaged version of 2SLS, but noted that their heuristic approach lacked statistical justification.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models

Lenkoski

Eicher

Raftery

2013

Econometric Reviews

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Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors introduced a model averaged version of 2SLS, but noted that their heuristic approach lacked statistical justification. 2 Strictly speaking, Durlauf et al (2008) did not allow for instrument uncertainty, but provided a model averaging approach to instrument candidate regressors in the second stage only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models

Lenkoski

Eicher

Raftery

2013

Econometric Reviews

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“…It has become quite popular in economics, thanks in large part to methodological developments to which Eduardo Ley has contributed (Fernández et al, 2001a; Ley and Steel, 2007, 2009). For other developments of BMA in macroeconomics, see Fernández et al (2001b), Brock and Durlauf (2001), Brock et al (2003), Sala-i-Martin et al (2004), Durlauf et al (2006, 2008), Eicher et al (2010) and Varian (2014); see Steel (2011) for a survey.…”

Section: Forecasting With Dynamic Model Averagingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic model averaging in large model spaces using dynamic Occam׳s window

Onorante

Raftery

2016

European Economic Review

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Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

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“…In the final regressions, we applied the 'listwise delition of missing values' routine. The statistical design of our study is thus based on the usual, SPSS-XXII ordinary least square standard regression (SPSS, 2007) of the 'kitchen sink type' (Durlauf et al, 2008;Laver and Shepsle, 1999) of economic growth and economic, social and political performance in the research tradition of Barro, 2003. Prior stepwise regression procedures selected the significant among the total list of 26 available predictors.…”

Section: Developing the Research Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Globalization, the Environment and the Future 'Greening' of Arab Politics

Tausch

2015

SSRN Journal

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The pressures of globalization, rising ecological footprint and shrinking biocapacity and concomitant global value change will contribute towards an increase of the importance of environmental issues in the Arab world in the coming years. Without question, already the time series data from available indices -like the KOF-Index of Globalization (2015) and Ecological Footprint Network data on ecological footprint and biocapicity -all point in the direction that in objective terms the Arab World will be confronted by a synchronous increase of these phenomena in the coming years. In addition, the newly available opinion data from the recently released World Values Survey (6) for twelve members of the Arab League (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Tunisia, and Yemen), containing almost 70% of the population of the countries of the Arab League show to us that membership rate environmental organizations, participation in environmental demonstrations and giving priority to protecting the environment over economic growth are already a factor in those countries. Their weight will increase in the years to come, given the general and very robust underlying tendencies.Our article analyzes the empirical relationship between rising globalization and ecological performance by establishing the global long-term, structural macro-quantitative determinants of environmental performance in the world system with cross-national data. In multiple standard OLS regression models, we test the effects of 26 standard predictor variables, including the 'four freedoms' of goods, capital, labor and services, whose weight will all increase in the Arab world in the coming years, on the following indicators of sustainable development Our research shows that the apprehensions of quantitative research, critical of neo-liberal globalization are fully vindicated by the significant negative environmental effects of the foreign savings rate. High foreign savings are indeed a driver of global footprint, and are a blockade against a satisfactory Happy Planet Index performance. The new international division of labor is one of the prime drivers of high CO2 per capita emissions. The penetration of economies by foreign direct investments by transnational corporations, which is the master variable of most quantitative dependency theories (MNC penetration), blocks environmental performance (EPI-Index) and several other socially important processes. Worker remittances have a significant positive effect on the Happy Planet Index, and Happy Life Years.In attempting to draw some cautious predictions for the Arab World, the article then evaluates the performance of the Arab countries in this context with our cross-national data and with our analysis of World Values Survey (6) data for the region. While the documented data for the region from the Yale/Columbia EPI Index, which is the best single-shot available global environmental quality indicator today, and the Ecological Footprint Network time ...

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Are Any Growth Theories Robust?

Cited by 239 publications

References 51 publications

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models

Dynamic model averaging in large model spaces using dynamic Occam׳s window

Globalization, the Environment and the Future 'Greening' of Arab Politics

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